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XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

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Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: h1 Costs Summary

h2 Technology Costs

See also:

# Cars ICE cost data
# Cars PHEV cost data 
# Cars EV cost data
# Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle cost data
# Bus ICE cost data
# Bus Hybrid EV cost data
# Bus Hydrogen FCV cost data
# Bus EV cost data
# Passenger Rail cost data
# UK National Aviation cost data

h2 Technologies costed in this sector:

# CAR Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) (Petrol/Diesel)
# CAR Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)
# CAR Electric Vehicle (EV)
# CAR Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) (i.e. Hydrogen)
# BUS ICE (Diesel)
# BUS Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (HEV)
# BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol)
# BUS EV
# RAIL Diesel
# RAIL Electric
# AIR Domestic aviation (Kerosene) 

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology Used

The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the uptake levels of specific technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capital and operating costs.  Operating costs include costs of maintenance, but fuel costs are not included in these transport costs  (they are included in the costs of fossil fuels).

For all car, bus, and rail technologies, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied where available.

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2010 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in £ per billion vehicle kilometres (km) per annum are converted into vehicle costs using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per vehicle type. Costs are then spread over the assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances travelled by technology. These are converted into numbers of vehicles required using the MARKAL assumption of average annual km by vehicle type and the resultant number of required vehicles is costed with the per unit cost.

Costs in the model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low.  The low estimates of costs fall linearly to the 2050 level which is based on the lowest credible estimate of cost in that year.  The high cost estimates remain at the 2010 level throughout the period to 2050.

h2 Caveats

The transport costs shown in the calculator do not take account of fuel costs and therefore the fuel savings associated with more efficient vehicle technologies.  Savings due to reduced fossil fuel use are captured under the fossil fuel costs of each pathway.  In reality, the additional upfront cost of low carbon technologies such as electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be partly or totally offset by fuel savings over time.

h1 Technical Assumptions

Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30

Technology efficiences  Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 

Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09

Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14

Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71

Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date? Do you have any new estimates to add?

3) What will technology costs look like in 2050? Assuming for instance:

* Moderate technological progress out to 2050;
* Breakthroughs in technological development and associated costs potentially driven by strong international action on climate change.

4) The model uses high and low technology cost assumptions.  What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector?

5) The list of evidence sources we have used to populate this website are set out in Table 1.  Do you have any more sources to add?

Table 1: Domestic passenger transport evidence sources

| *Title*                                                                                                                    | *Author*                     | *Published*   | *Download at:*                                                                                                                                                              |
| A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis                                                              | McKinsey                     | 2010          | www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf                                                                                                                     |
| Influences on the Low Carbon Car Market from 2020-2030                                                                     | Element Energy / LowCVP      | July 2011     | http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports/Influences%20on%20the%20Low%20Carbon%20Car%20Market%20from%202020-2030%20-%20Final%20Report%20010811_pdf.pdf                        |
| Energy Technology Perspectives 2010                                                                                        | Internal Energy Agency       | 2010          | http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401                                                                                                                               |
| Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles                                                            | Ricardo / AEA                | February 2011 | http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/ec_hdv_ghg_strategy_en.pdf                                                                                       |
| EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?                                                                                          | AEA / CE Delft / TNO         | June 2010     | http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/                                                                                                                                       |
| Making the Connection: The Plug-in Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy                                                         | DfT (OLEV)                   | June 2011     | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/plug-in-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy                                                                                                  |
| Electric Vehicles: Charged with Potential                                                                                  | Royal Academy of Engineering | May 2010      | http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Electric_Vehicles.pdf                                                                                                |
| Review of cost assumptions and tecnology uptake scenarios in the CCC transport MACC model                                  | AEA                          | 2009          | http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Review%20of%20cost%20assumptions%20and%20technology%20uptake%20scenarios%20in%20the%20CCC%20transport%20MACC%20model.pdf |
| Impact Assessment of Fourth Carbon Budget Level                                                                            | DECC                         | 2011          | http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/a%20low%20carbon%20uk/carbon%20budgets/1685-ia-fourth-carbon-budget-level.pdf                                             |
| The Fourth Carbon Budget: Reducing emissions through the 2020s                                                             | Committee on Climate Change  | December 2010 | http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget                                                                                                                       |
| Roads towards a low-carbon future: Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles in the global road transportation system | McKinsey                     | 2009          | http://documents.eu-japan.eu/seminars/europe/other/co2_reduction/dinkel_report.pdf                                                                                          |
| Details of the Green Bus Fund                                                                                              | DfT                          | 2011          | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/buses-purchased-under-the-green-bus-fund/                                                                                                |
| Electric Avenues: Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK                                                    | WWF                          | 2011          | http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_avenues_lowres.pdf                                                                                                              |

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Sophie Hartfield

Working-level analyst - Nazmiye Ozkan.

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Brittanicone2007

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:
Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: h1 Costs Summary

h2 Technology Costs

See also:

# Cars ICE cost data
# Cars PHEV cost data 
# Cars EV cost data
# Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle cost data
# Bus ICE cost data
# Bus Hybrid EV cost data
# Bus Hydrogen FCV cost data
# Bus EV cost data
# Passenger Rail cost data
# UK National Aviation cost data

h2 Technologies costed in this sector:

# CAR Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) (Petrol/Diesel)
# CAR Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)
# CAR Electric Vehicle (EV)
# CAR Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) (i.e. Hydrogen)
# BUS ICE (Diesel)
# BUS Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (HEV)
# BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol)
# BUS EV
# RAIL Diesel
# RAIL Electric
# AIR Domestic aviation (Kerosene) 

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology Used

The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the uptake levels of specific technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capital and operating costs.  Operating costs include costs of maintenance, but fuel costs are not included in these transport costs  (they are included in the costs of fossil fuels).

For all car, bus, and rail technologies, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied where available.

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2010 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in £ per billion vehicle kilometres (km) per annum are converted into vehicle costs using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per vehicle type. Costs are then spread over the assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances travelled by technology. These are converted into numbers of vehicles required using the MARKAL assumption of average annual km by vehicle type and the resultant number of required vehicles is costed with the per unit cost.

Costs in the model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low.  The low estimates of costs fall linearly to the 2050 level which is based on the lowest credible estimate of cost in that year.  The high cost estimates remain at the 2010 level throughout the period to 2050.

h2 Caveats

The transport costs shown in the calculator do not take account of fuel costs and therefore the fuel savings associated with more efficient vehicle technologies.  Savings due to reduced fossil fuel use are captured under the fossil fuel costs of each pathway.  In reality, the additional upfront cost of low carbon technologies such as electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be partly or totally offset by fuel savings over time.

h1 Technical Assumptions

Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30

h1 Amendments to Life Time Assumptions

The vehicle life is too low. At present they have a lifetime of 13 years. There would seem no reason to expect this to reduce. Over the last 40 years vehicle lifetimes have increased by around 3 years, similar progress would result in a lifetime of 16 years. Write-offs due to collision should much reduce, due to technology such as automatic braking, land sensors etc even excluding much fuller automation.

h2 Electric vehicles excluding the battery pack have lower maintenance and longer lasting components than ICE, so can be expected to last even longer.

Technology efficiences  Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 

Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09

Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14

Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71

Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date? Do you have any new estimates to add?

h1 Amendments to Life Time Assumptions

The vehicle life is too low. At present they have a lifetime of 13 years. There would seem no reason to expect this to reduce. Over the last 40 years vehicle lifetimes have increased by around 3 years, similar progress would result in a lifetime of 16 years. Write-offs due to collision should much reduce, due to technology such as automatic braking, land sensors etc even excluding much fuller automation.

h2 Electric vehicles excluding the battery pack have lower maintenance and longer lasting components than ICE, so can be expected to last even longer.

3) What will technology costs look like in 2050? Assuming for instance:

* Moderate technological progress out to 2050;
* Breakthroughs in technological development and associated costs potentially driven by strong international action on climate change.

4) The model uses high and low technology cost assumptions.  What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector?

5) The list of evidence sources we have used to populate this website are set out in Table 1.  Do you have any more sources to add?

Table 1: Domestic passenger transport evidence sources

| *Title*                                                                                                                    | *Author*                     | *Published*   | *Download at:*                                                                                                                                                              |
| A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis                                                              | McKinsey                     | 2010          | www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf                                                                                                                     |
| Influences on the Low Carbon Car Market from 2020-2030                                                                     | Element Energy / LowCVP      | July 2011     | http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports/Influences%20on%20the%20Low%20Carbon%20Car%20Market%20from%202020-2030%20-%20Final%20Report%20010811_pdf.pdf                        |
| Energy Technology Perspectives 2010                                                                                        | Internal Energy Agency       | 2010          | http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401                                                                                                                               |
| Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles                                                            | Ricardo / AEA                | February 2011 | http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/ec_hdv_ghg_strategy_en.pdf                                                                                       |
| EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?                                                                                          | AEA / CE Delft / TNO         | June 2010     | http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/                                                                                                                                       |
| Making the Connection: The Plug-in Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy                                                         | DfT (OLEV)                   | June 2011     | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/plug-in-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy                                                                                                  |
| Electric Vehicles: Charged with Potential                                                                                  | Royal Academy of Engineering | May 2010      | http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Electric_Vehicles.pdf                                                                                                |
| Review of cost assumptions and tecnology uptake scenarios in the CCC transport MACC model                                  | AEA                          | 2009          | http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Review%20of%20cost%20assumptions%20and%20technology%20uptake%20scenarios%20in%20the%20CCC%20transport%20MACC%20model.pdf |
| Impact Assessment of Fourth Carbon Budget Level                                                                            | DECC                         | 2011          | http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/a%20low%20carbon%20uk/carbon%20budgets/1685-ia-fourth-carbon-budget-level.pdf                                             |
| The Fourth Carbon Budget: Reducing emissions through the 2020s                                                             | Committee on Climate Change  | December 2010 | http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget                                                                                                                       |
| Roads towards a low-carbon future: Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles in the global road transportation system | McKinsey                     | 2009          | http://documents.eu-japan.eu/seminars/europe/other/co2_reduction/dinkel_report.pdf                                                                                          |
| Details of the Green Bus Fund                                                                                              | DfT                          | 2011          | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/buses-purchased-under-the-green-bus-fund/                                                                                                |
| Electric Avenues: Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK                                                    | WWF                          | 2011          | http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_avenues_lowres.pdf                                                                                                              |

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Sophie Hartfield

Working-level analyst - Nazmiye Ozkan.

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Brittanicone2007

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: