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Title: Domestic Passenger Transport Costs Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan. Senior analyst - TBC Technologies costed in this sector CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel) CAR PHEV CAR EV CAR FCV (Hydrogen) BUS ICE (Diesel) BUS HEV BUS BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol RAIL DIESEL RAIL ELECTRIC AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) Cars ICE 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)10000-16311/car Operating cost £(2010)200-1545/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High is Markal and low is ESME Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 Cars PHEV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-32800/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2831/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 High cost Markal and low cost ESME. EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09 Cars EV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-44899/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2092/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs is MARKAL and low cost is ESME EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)23000-150000/car 23000–150000£(2010)/car Operating cost £(2010)200-20546/car 200–20546£(2010)/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High cost is DfT advised number and low cost is from ESME Technology efficiences -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14 Bus ICE Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)120,000-235690/unit Operating cost £(2010)1000-24971/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High cost is MARKAL and low cost is ESME Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71 Bus Hybrid EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)130000-271993/unit Operating cost £(2010)4400-25064/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME Technology efficiencies -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Bus Hydrogen FCV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)260000-1052865£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010)2410-93722/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME Bus EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010) 205266–441647£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010) unit 19897–37933£(2010)/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes MARKAL figures used for high and low Calculator assumptions Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30 Methodology Explanation For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010). In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost. Issues and cross checks It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. This is something to confirm with MARKAL. The 2050 Wiki home pagea-z indexrecent changes add a page add a cost Related Pages, Pictures and Users Sector by Sector Status Sectors in the Calculator Technical Manual User: Neil Fleming Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs Content: h1 Costs Summary h2 Technology Costs See also: # Cars ICE cost data # Cars PHEV cost data # Cars EV cost data # Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle cost data # Bus ICE cost data # Bus Hybrid EV cost data # Bus Hydrogen FCV cost data # Bus EV cost data # Passenger Rail cost data # UK National Aviation cost data h2 Technologies costed in this sector: # CAR Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) (Petrol/Diesel) # CAR Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) # CAR Electric Vehicle (EV) # CAR Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) (i.e. Hydrogen) # BUS ICE (Diesel) # BUS Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (HEV) # BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol) # BUS EV # RAIL Diesel # RAIL Electric # AIR Domestic aviation (Kerosene) h1 Costs Methodology h2 Methodology Used The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the uptake levels of specific technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capital and operating costs. Operating costs include costs of maintenance, but fuel costs are not included in these transport costs (they are included in the costs of fossil fuels). For all car, bus, and rail technologies, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied where available. In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2010 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in £ per billion vehicle kilometres (km) per annum are converted into vehicle costs using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per vehicle type. Costs are then spread over the assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances travelled by technology. These are converted into numbers of vehicles required using the MARKAL assumption of average annual km by vehicle type and the resultant number of required vehicles is costed with the per unit cost. Costs in the model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low. The low estimates of costs fall linearly to the 2050 level which is based on the lowest credible estimate of cost in that year. The high cost estimates remain at the 2010 level throughout the period to 2050. h2 Caveats The transport costs shown in the calculator do not take account of fuel costs and therefore the fuel savings associated with more efficient vehicle technologies. Savings due to reduced fossil fuel use are captured under the fossil fuel costs of each pathway. In reality, the additional upfront cost of low carbon technologies such as electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be partly or totally offset by fuel savings over time. h1 Technical Assumptions Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30 h1 Amendments to Life Time Assumptions The vehicle life is too low. At present they have a lifetime of 13 years. There would seem no reason to expect this to reduce. Over the last 40 years vehicle lifetimes have increased by around 3 years, similar progress would result in a lifetime of 16 years. Write-offs due to collision should much reduce, due to technology such as automatic braking, land sensors etc even excluding much fuller automation. h2 Electric vehicles excluding the battery pack have lower maintenance and longer lasting components than ICE, so can be expected to last even longer. Technology efficiences Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09 Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14 Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71 Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 h1 Questions to Stakeholders 1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected? 2) Are any of the technology costs out of date? Do you have any new estimates to add? h1 Amendments to Life Time Assumptions The vehicle life is too low. At present they have a lifetime of 13 years. There would seem no reason to expect this to reduce. Over the last 40 years vehicle lifetimes have increased by around 3 years, similar progress would result in a lifetime of 16 years. Write-offs due to collision should much reduce, due to technology such as automatic braking, land sensors etc even excluding much fuller automation. h2 Electric vehicles excluding the battery pack have lower maintenance and longer lasting components than ICE, so can be expected to last even longer. 3) What will technology costs look like in 2050? Assuming for instance: * Moderate technological progress out to 2050; * Breakthroughs in technological development and associated costs potentially driven by strong international action on climate change. 4) The model uses high and low technology cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector? 5) The list of evidence sources we have used to populate this website are set out in Table 1. Do you have any more sources to add? Table 1: Domestic passenger transport evidence sources | *Title* | *Author* | *Published* | *Download at:* | | A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis | McKinsey | 2010 | www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf | | Influences on the Low Carbon Car Market from 2020-2030 | Element Energy / LowCVP | July 2011 | http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports/Influences%20on%20the%20Low%20Carbon%20Car%20Market%20from%202020-2030%20-%20Final%20Report%20010811_pdf.pdf | | Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 | Internal Energy Agency | 2010 | http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401 | | Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles | Ricardo / AEA | February 2011 | http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/ec_hdv_ghg_strategy_en.pdf | | EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050? | AEA / CE Delft / TNO | June 2010 | http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/ | | Making the Connection: The Plug-in Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy | DfT (OLEV) | June 2011 | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/plug-in-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy | | Electric Vehicles: Charged with Potential | Royal Academy of Engineering | May 2010 | http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Electric_Vehicles.pdf | | Review of cost assumptions and tecnology uptake scenarios in the CCC transport MACC model | AEA | 2009 | http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Review%20of%20cost%20assumptions%20and%20technology%20uptake%20scenarios%20in%20the%20CCC%20transport%20MACC%20model.pdf | | Impact Assessment of Fourth Carbon Budget Level | DECC | 2011 | http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/a%20low%20carbon%20uk/carbon%20budgets/1685-ia-fourth-carbon-budget-level.pdf | | The Fourth Carbon Budget: Reducing emissions through the 2020s | Committee on Climate Change | December 2010 | http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget | | Roads towards a low-carbon future: Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles in the global road transportation system | McKinsey | 2009 | http://documents.eu-japan.eu/seminars/europe/other/co2_reduction/dinkel_report.pdf | | Details of the Green Bus Fund | DfT | 2011 | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/buses-purchased-under-the-green-bus-fund/ | | Electric Avenues: Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK | WWF | 2011 | http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_avenues_lowres.pdf | h1 Contacts Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Sophie Hartfield Working-level analyst - Nazmiye Ozkan. Category: sector by sector cost assumptions User: Brittanicone2007 Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |