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Title: XII.b Domestic freight Costs Content: h1 Costs Summary h2 Technology Costs See also: # Road Freight http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/31 # Rail Freight http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/33 Technologies costed in this sector: * Road Freight – ICE and Electric * Rail Freight – Diesel and Electric h1 Costs Methodology h2 Methodology Used The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the levels of the technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capex and opex. For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL and ESME input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied. In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost. h1 Technical Assumptions Vehicle Technical Lifetime: * Rail freight 30yrs * Road freight 7yrs h1 Questions to Stakeholders 1)Some scenarios result in conventional technologies being scrapped before the end of their technical life. The model currently does not place a potential resale value on these vehicles. Should a resale or export value be assigned to these vehicles? 2)It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. 3) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector? h1 Phase I Admin Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan. Category: sector by sector cost assumptions User: Neil Fleming Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: XII.b Domestic freight Costs Content: h1 Costs Summary h2 Technology Costs See also: # Road Freight http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/31 # Rail Freight http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/33 Technologies costed in this sector: * Road Freight – Internal combustion engine (ICE) and Electric * Rail Freight – Diesel and Electric h1 Costs Methodology h2 Methodology Used The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the uptake levels of different technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capital and operating costs. Operating costs include costs of maintenance, but fuel costs are not included in the transport costs (they are included in the fossil fuel costs). For all car, bus and rail technologies, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied where available. In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2010 figures are used for the high estimate of costs throughout the period. Low estimates are based on the lowest credible costs of the technology in 2050. MARKAL costs in £ per billion vehicle kilometres (km) per annum are converted into numbers of vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual km per vehicle type. Costs are then spread over assumed life-time per vehicle type using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances travelled by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using the MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant number of required vehicles is costed with the per unit cost. h2 Caveats The transport costs shown in the calculator do not take account of fuel costs and therefore the fuel savings associated with more efficient vehicle technologies. Savings due to reduced fossil fuel use are captured under the fossil fuel costs of each pathway. In reality, the additional upfront cost of low carbon technologies such as electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be partly or totally offset by fuel savings over time. h1 Technical Assumptions Vehicle Technical Lifetime: * Rail freight 30yrs * Road freight 7yrs h1 Questions to Stakeholders 1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected in the estimates? 2) Are any of the technology costs out of date? Do you have any new estimates to add? 3) What technological progress are we likely to see between now and 2050? What will technology costs look like in 2050? 4) The model uses high and low technology cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the domestic freight sector? h1 Contacts Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Sophie Hartfield Working-level analyst - Nazmiye Ozkan. Category: sector by sector cost assumptions User: Daniel Lord Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |