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XII.c International aviation Costs

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Title: XII.c International aviation Costs

Content: * NOTE*

The 2050 Calculator includes all emissions which count towards the UK’s 2050 target. The only exception is international aviation and shipping: the Government has yet to decide whether this will contribute towards the UK’s 2050 target; however for illustrative purposes this sector has been included in the Calculator in the meantime.

h1 costs summary

h2 technology costs

Click here for International Aviation cost data

Table 1. Implied abatement cost from level 1 (£/tCO2e)

|  | *2007* | *2010* | *2015* | *2020* | *2025* | *2030* | *2035* | *2040* | *2045* | *2050* |
| *Level 1* | - | - | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    |
| *Level 2* | - | - | (10) | (10) | (21) | (31) | (37) | (44) | (49) | (57) |
| *Level 3* | - | - | (10) | 12   | 15   | 18   | 18   | 18   | 14   | 12   |
| *Level 4* | - | - | 397  | 158  | 90   | 36   | 234  | 136  | 285  | 118  |

Click here to see the workings and assumptions behind this marginal abatement cost data

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology used

We only have point estimates for the incremental costs for international aviation from the results of a study assessing the options for reducing aviation CO2 emissions to 2050, published by DfT in August 2011[Available at: www.dft.gov.uk/publications/reducing-co2-emissions/. For the purposes of the 2050 Calculator, the mid-strength of each option has been used to create the alternative pathways]. We have used these as our “default” costs.

As we do not have total costs data, we have assumed that costs at level 1 are zero, and applied the incremental costs for levels 2, 3 and 4.

An important caveat to the international aviation costs are:

* Users should be aware that whereas the Calculator includes total costs for all other technologies, for international aviation we only have incremental costs;
* Therefore when looking at total costs of pathways in the Web Tool, be aware that this will be a slight underestimate because it will not reflect the full international aviation costs;
* However note that this omission of costs ceases to be a problem if users look at the incremental cost of one pathway over and above any pathway in which international aviation is set at level 1; in this instance, it will be a true reflection of incremental costs.

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s aviation technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date, do you have any new estimates to add?

3) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the aviation sector?

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord and Sophie Hartfield

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Daniel Lord

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:
Title: XII.c International aviation Costs

Content: The 2050 Calculator includes all emissions which count towards the UK’s 2050 target. The only exception is international aviation and shipping: the Government has yet to decide whether this will contribute towards the UK’s 2050 target; however for illustrative purposes this sector has been included in the Calculator in the meantime.

h1 costs summary

h2 technology costs

Click here for International Aviation cost data

Table 1. Implied abatement cost from level 1 (£/tCO2e)

|  | *2007* | *2010* | *2015* | *2020* | *2025* | *2030* | *2035* | *2040* | *2045* | *2050* |
| *Level 1* | - | - | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    | -    |
| *Level 2* | - | - | (10) | (10) | (21) | (31) | (37) | (44) | (49) | (57) |
| *Level 3* | - | - | (10) | 12   | 15   | 18   | 18   | 18   | 14   | 12   |
| *Level 4* | - | - | 397  | 158  | 90   | 36   | 234  | 136  | 285  | 118  |

Click here to see the workings and assumptions behind this marginal abatement cost data

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology used

We only have point estimates for the incremental costs for international aviation from the results of a study assessing the options for reducing aviation CO2 emissions to 2050, published by DfT in August 2011[Available at: www.dft.gov.uk/publications/reducing-co2-emissions/. For the purposes of the 2050 Calculator, the mid-strength of each option has been used to create the alternative pathways]. We have used these as our “default” costs.

As we do not have total costs data, we have assumed that costs at level 1 are zero, and applied the incremental costs for levels 2, 3 and 4.

An important caveat to the international aviation costs are:

* Users should be aware that whereas the Calculator includes total costs for all other technologies, for international aviation we only have incremental costs;
* Therefore when looking at total costs of pathways in the Web Tool, be aware that this will be a slight underestimate because it will not reflect the full international aviation costs;
* However note that this omission of costs ceases to be a problem if users look at the incremental cost of one pathway over and above any pathway in which international aviation is set at level 1; in this instance, it will be a true reflection of incremental costs.

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s aviation technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date, do you have any new estimates to add?

3) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the aviation sector?

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord and Sophie Hartfield

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Daniel Lord

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: