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XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

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Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: h1 Costs Summary

h2 Technology Costs

See also:

# Cars ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/40
# Cars PHEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/41
# Cars EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/42
# Cars FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/43
# BUS ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/44
# BUS HEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/46
# BUS FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/47
# BUS EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/48
# Rail http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/32
# UK Air http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/52

h2 Technologies costed in this sector:

# CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel)
# CAR PHEV
# CAR EV
# CAR FCV (Hydrogen)
# BUS ICE (Diesel)
# BUS HEV
# BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol)
# BUS EV
# RAIL DIESEL
# RAIL ELECTRIC
# AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) 

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology Used

The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the levels of the technologies.  The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050.  The model covers both capex and opex.

For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used.  These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied.

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology.  Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life.  Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology.  These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost.

Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level.

h1 Technical Assumptions

Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30

Technology efficiences  Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 

Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09

Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14

Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71

Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date, do you have any new estimates to add?

3) What will technology costs look like in 2050? Assuming for instance:

* Moderate climate change policy action, e.g. the transport sector takes on an equal share of effort to deliver the UK’s long-term climate targets;

* Ambitious policy action, e.g. if the EU extend and/or tighten vehicle emission standards.

4) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions.  What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector?

5) The list of evidence sources we have used to populate this website are set out in Table 1.  Do you have any more sources to add?

Table 1: Domestic passenger transport evidence sources

| *Title*                                                                                                                    | *Author*                     | *Published*   | *Download at:*                                                                                                                                                              |
| A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis                                                              | McKinsey                     | 2010          | www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf                                                                                                                     |
| Influences on the Low Carbon Car Market from 2020-2030                                                                     | Element Energy / LowCVP      | July 2011     | http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports/Influences%20on%20the%20Low%20Carbon%20Car%20Market%20from%202020-2030%20-%20Final%20Report%20010811_pdf.pdf                        |
| Energy Technology Perspectives 2010                                                                                        | Internal Energy Agency       | 2010          | http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401                                                                                                                               |
| Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles                                                            | Ricardo / AEA                | February 2011 | http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/ec_hdv_ghg_strategy_en.pdf                                                                                       |
| EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?                                                                                          | AEA / CE Delft / TNO         | June 2010     | http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/                                                                                                                                       |
| Making the Connection: The Plug-in Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy                                                         | DfT (OLEV)                   | June 2011     | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/plug-in-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy                                                                                                  |
| Electric Vehicles: Charged with Potential                                                                                  | Royal Academy of Engineering | May 2010      | http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Electric_Vehicles.pdf                                                                                                |
| Review of cost assumptions and tecnology uptake scenarios in the CCC transport MACC model                                  | AEA                          | 2009          | http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Review%20of%20cost%20assumptions%20and%20technology%20uptake%20scenarios%20in%20the%20CCC%20transport%20MACC%20model.pdf |
| Impact Assessment of Fourth Carbon Budget Level                                                                            | DECC                         | 2011          | http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/a%20low%20carbon%20uk/carbon%20budgets/1685-ia-fourth-carbon-budget-level.pdf                                             |
| The Fourth Carbon Budget: Reducing emissions through the 2020s                                                             | Committee on Climate Change  | December 2010 | http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget                                                                                                                       |
| Roads towards a low-carbon future: Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles in the global road transportation system | McKinsey                     | 2009          | http://documents.eu-japan.eu/seminars/europe/other/co2_reduction/dinkel_report.pdf                                                                                          |
| Details of the Green Bus Fund                                                                                              | DfT                          | 2011          | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/buses-purchased-under-the-green-bus-fund/                                                                                                |
| Electric Avenues: Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK                                                    | WWF                          | 2011          | http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_avenues_lowres.pdf                                                                                                              |

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord and Sophie Hartfield

Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan.

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Daniel Lord

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:
Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: h1 Costs Summary

h2 Technology Costs

See also:

# Cars ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/40
# Cars PHEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/41
# Cars EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/42
# Cars FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/43
# BUS ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/44
# BUS HEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/46
# BUS FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/47
# BUS EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/48
# Rail http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/32
# UK Air http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/52

h2 Technologies costed in this sector:

# CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel)
# CAR PHEV
# CAR EV
# CAR FCV (Hydrogen)
# BUS ICE (Diesel)
# BUS HEV
# BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol)
# BUS EV
# RAIL DIESEL
# RAIL ELECTRIC
# AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) 

h1 Costs Methodology

h2 Methodology Used

The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the levels of the technologies.  The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050.  The model covers both capex and opex.

For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR, MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used.  These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied.

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology.  Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life.  Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology.  These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost.

Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level.

h1 Technical Assumptions

Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30

Technology efficiences  Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 

Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09

Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14

Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71

Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

h1 Questions to Stakeholders

1) Are today’s vehicle technology costs accurately reflected?

2) Are any of the technology costs out of date, do you have any new estimates to add?

3) What will technology costs look like in 2050? Assuming for instance:

* Moderate climate change policy action, e.g. the transport sector takes on an equal share of effort to deliver the UK’s long-term climate targets;

* Ambitious policy action, e.g. if the EU extend and/or tighten vehicle emission standards.

4) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions.  What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector?

5) The list of evidence sources we have used to populate this website are set out in Table 1.  Do you have any more sources to add?

Table 1: Domestic passenger transport evidence sources

| *Title*                                                                                                                    | *Author*                     | *Published*   | *Download at:*                                                                                                                                                              |
| A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis                                                              | McKinsey                     | 2010          | www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf                                                                                                                     |
| Influences on the Low Carbon Car Market from 2020-2030                                                                     | Element Energy / LowCVP      | July 2011     | http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports/Influences%20on%20the%20Low%20Carbon%20Car%20Market%20from%202020-2030%20-%20Final%20Report%20010811_pdf.pdf                        |
| Energy Technology Perspectives 2010                                                                                        | Internal Energy Agency       | 2010          | http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401                                                                                                                               |
| Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles                                                            | Ricardo / AEA                | February 2011 | http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/ec_hdv_ghg_strategy_en.pdf                                                                                       |
| EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?                                                                                          | AEA / CE Delft / TNO         | June 2010     | http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/                                                                                                                                       |
| Making the Connection: The Plug-in Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy                                                         | DfT (OLEV)                   | June 2011     | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/plug-in-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy                                                                                                  |
| Electric Vehicles: Charged with Potential                                                                                  | Royal Academy of Engineering | May 2010      | http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Electric_Vehicles.pdf                                                                                                |
| Review of cost assumptions and tecnology uptake scenarios in the CCC transport MACC model                                  | AEA                          | 2009          | http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/CH6%20-%20AEA%20-%20Review%20of%20cost%20assumptions%20and%20technology%20uptake%20scenarios%20in%20the%20CCC%20transport%20MACC%20model.pdf |
| Impact Assessment of Fourth Carbon Budget Level                                                                            | DECC                         | 2011          | http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/a%20low%20carbon%20uk/carbon%20budgets/1685-ia-fourth-carbon-budget-level.pdf                                             |
| The Fourth Carbon Budget: Reducing emissions through the 2020s                                                             | Committee on Climate Change  | December 2010 | http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget                                                                                                                       |
| Roads towards a low-carbon future: Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles in the global road transportation system | McKinsey                     | 2009          | http://documents.eu-japan.eu/seminars/europe/other/co2_reduction/dinkel_report.pdf                                                                                          |
| Details of the Green Bus Fund                                                                                              | DfT                          | 2011          | http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/buses-purchased-under-the-green-bus-fund/                                                                                                |
| Electric Avenues: Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK                                                    | WWF                          | 2011          | http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_avenues_lowres.pdf                                                                                                              |

h1 Contacts

Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord and Sophie Hartfield

Working-level analyst - Nazmiye Ozkan.

Category: sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Daniel Lord

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: