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Title: Domestic Passenger Transport Costs Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan. Senior analyst - TBC Technologies costed in this sector CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel) CAR PHEV CAR EV CAR FCV (Hydrogen) BUS ICE (Diesel) BUS HEV BUS BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol RAIL DIESEL RAIL ELECTRIC AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) Cars ICE 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)10000-16311/car Operating cost £(2010)200-1545/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High is Markal and low is ESME Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 Cars PHEV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-32800/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2831/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 High cost Markal and low cost ESME. EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09 Cars EV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-44899/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2092/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs is MARKAL and low cost is ESME EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)23000-150000/car 23000–150000£(2010)/car Operating cost £(2010)200-20546/car 200–20546£(2010)/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High cost is DfT advised number and low cost is from ESME Technology efficiences -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14 Bus ICE Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)120,000-235690/unit Operating cost £(2010)1000-24971/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High cost is MARKAL and low cost is ESME Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71 Bus Hybrid EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)130000-271993/unit Operating cost £(2010)4400-25064/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME Technology efficiencies -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Bus Hydrogen FCV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)260000-1052865£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010)2410-93722/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME Bus EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010) 205266–441647£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010) unit 19897–37933£(2010)/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes MARKAL figures used for high and low Calculator assumptions Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30 Methodology Explanation For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010). In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost. Issues and cross checks It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. This is something to confirm with MARKAL. The 2050 Wiki home pagea-z indexrecent changes add a page add a cost Related Pages, Pictures and Users Sector by Sector Status Sectors in the Calculator Technical Manual User: Neil Fleming Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs Content: h1 Costs Summary h2 Technology Costs see also: # Cars ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/40 # Cars PHEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/41 # Cars EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/42 # Cars FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/43 # BUS ICE http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/44 # BUS HEV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/46 # BUS FCV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/47 # BUS EV http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/48 # Rail http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/32 # UK Air http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/cost_categories/52 h2 Technologies costed in this sector: # CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel) # CAR PHEV # CAR EV # CAR FCV (Hydrogen) # BUS ICE (Diesel) # BUS HEV # BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol) # BUS EV # RAIL DIESEL # RAIL ELECTRIC # AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) h1 Costs Methodology h2 Methodology Used The user decides which trajectory is used which defines the levels of the technologies. The model applies the levels/quantities of these technologies to the input costs to provide an annual and total cost to 2050. The model covers both capex and opex. For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL and other confidential input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available assumptions with updates from DfT applied. In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost. Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. h1 Technical Assumptions Vehicle Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30 Technology efficiences Cars ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 Cars PHEV 2050 -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09 Cars EV 2050 -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14 Bus ICE -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71 Bus Hybrid EV -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90/Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65 h1 Questions to Stakeholders 1) Some scenarios result in conventional technologies being scrapped before the end of their technical life. The model currently does not place a potential resale value on these vehicles. Should a resale or export value be assigned to these vehicles? 2) It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. 3) The model uses high and low input cost assumptions. What is the evidence that these remain constant, rise or fall over time for the transport sector? h1 Contacts Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Daniel Lord Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan. Category: sector by sector cost assumptions User: Daniel Lord Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |