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XII.c & e International Aviation and Shipping

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Showing all changes since 2011-04-27 17:25:06 UTC

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2011-04-27

Title: 2050 Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming

Working-level analyst - TBC

Senior analyst - TBC

Data source Markal November 2010

Matrix source - D11/801835

Technologies costed in this sector

	CAR	ICE (Petrol/Diesel) 	CAR	PHEV 	CAR	EV 	CAR	FCV (Hydrogen) 	BUS	ICE (Diesel) 	BUS	HEV 	BUS	EV 	BUS	FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol) 	RAIL	DIESEL 	RAIL	ELECTRIC 	AIR	AIR (Kerosene)

Costs summary (£ per veh unit):

						£ per veh/unit

| Cost per Vehicle/Unit | Capital |  | Operating |

		High	        Low	        High    	Low

| CAR  | ICE  | 16,310.62     | 14,247.23     | 1,545.39     | 1,535.25   |
| CAR  | PHEV | 31,050.41     | 16,685.49     | 2,830.61     | 1,450.71   |
| CAR  | EV   | 44,898.92     | 22,944.05     | 2,091.54     | 1,144.52   |
| CAR  | FCV  | 305,837.77    | 17,505.49     | 20,546.43    | 1,477.34   |
| BUS  | ICE  | 235,689.65    | 168,376.88    | 24,970.65    | 24,765.81  |
| BUS  | HEV  | 271,993.46    | 179,842.84    | 25,064.28    | 24,765.81  |
| BUS  | EV   | 441,647.25    | 205,265.57    | 37,932.74    | 19,897.18  |
| BUS  | FCV  | 1,052,865.48  | 187,265.86    | 93,722.26    | 20,154.28  |
| RAIL | DIES | 4,745,030.85  | 4,466,216.35  | 49,128.38    | 49,128.38  |
| RAIL | ELEC | 4,494,351.02  | 4,466,215.75  | 35,152.19    | 35,152.19  |
| AIR  | AIR  | 57,337,603.75 | 57,337,603.75 | 1,504,958.04 | 792,385.50 |

Current Calculator assumptions

Life Time (years)

		Years

| CAR  | ICE  | 12 |
| CAR  | PHEV | 12 |
| CAR  | EV   | 12 |
| CAR  | FCV  | 12 |
| BUS  | ICE  | 15 |
| BUS  | HEV  | 15 |
| BUS  | EV   | 15 |
| BUS  | FCV  | 15 |
| RAIL | DIES | 40 |
| RAIL | ELEC | 40 |
| AIR  | AIR  | 30 |

Methodology explanation Source & methodology  Source & methodology

For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used.  These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010).

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology.  Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life.  Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology.  These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost.

h1 Issues and cross checks

It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs.  This is something to confirm with MARKAL.

Need to consider issues around scrappage rates costs and residual values.

* May be worth plundering a McKinsey study[http://www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf] and perhaps getting in touch with the authors for some data points.

Category: 2050 pathway costs



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:
Title: 2050 Domestic passenger transport costs

Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming

Working-level analyst - TBC

Senior analyst - TBC

Data source Markal November 2010

Matrix source - D11/801835

Technologies costed in this sector

	CAR	ICE (Petrol/Diesel) 	CAR	PHEV 	CAR	EV 	CAR	FCV (Hydrogen) 	BUS	ICE (Diesel) 	BUS	HEV 	BUS	EV 	BUS	FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol) 	RAIL	DIESEL 	RAIL	ELECTRIC 	AIR	AIR (Kerosene)

Costs summary (£ per veh unit):

						£ per veh/unit

| Cost per Vehicle/Unit | Capital |  | Operating |

		High	        Low	        High    	Low

| CAR  | ICE  | 16,310.62     | 14,247.23     | 1,545.39     | 1,535.25   |
| CAR  | PHEV | 31,050.41     | 16,685.49     | 2,830.61     | 1,450.71   |
| CAR  | EV   | 44,898.92     | 22,944.05     | 2,091.54     | 1,144.52   |
| CAR  | FCV  | 305,837.77    | 17,505.49     | 20,546.43    | 1,477.34   |
| BUS  | ICE  | 235,689.65    | 168,376.88    | 24,970.65    | 24,765.81  |
| BUS  | HEV  | 271,993.46    | 179,842.84    | 25,064.28    | 24,765.81  |
| BUS  | EV   | 441,647.25    | 205,265.57    | 37,932.74    | 19,897.18  |
| BUS  | FCV  | 1,052,865.48  | 187,265.86    | 93,722.26    | 20,154.28  |
| RAIL | DIES | 4,745,030.85  | 4,466,216.35  | 49,128.38    | 49,128.38  |
| RAIL | ELEC | 4,494,351.02  | 4,466,215.75  | 35,152.19    | 35,152.19  |
| AIR  | AIR  | 57,337,603.75 | 57,337,603.75 | 1,504,958.04 | 792,385.50 |

Current Calculator assumptions

Life Time (years)

		Years

| CAR  | ICE  | 12 |
| CAR  | PHEV | 12 |
| CAR  | EV   | 12 |
| CAR  | FCV  | 12 |
| BUS  | ICE  | 15 |
| BUS  | HEV  | 15 |
| BUS  | EV   | 15 |
| BUS  | FCV  | 15 |
| RAIL | DIES | 40 |
| RAIL | ELEC | 40 |
| AIR  | AIR  | 30 |

Methodology explanation Source & methodology  Source & methodology

For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used.  These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010).

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology.  Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life.  Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology.  These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost.

h1 Issues and cross checks

It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs.  This is something to confirm with MARKAL.

Need to consider issues around scrappage rates costs and residual values.

* May be worth plundering a McKinsey study[http://www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf] and perhaps getting in touch with the authors for some data points.

Category: 2050 pathway costs



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: