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Title: 2050 Domestic passenger transport costs Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming Working-level analyst - TBC Senior analyst - TBC Data source Markal November 2010 Matrix source - D11/801835 Technologies costed in this sector CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel) CAR PHEV CAR EV CAR FCV (Hydrogen) BUS ICE (Diesel) BUS HEV BUS EV BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol) RAIL DIESEL RAIL ELECTRIC AIR AIR (Kerosene) Costs summary (£ per veh unit): £ per veh/unit | Cost per Vehicle/Unit | Capital | | Operating | High Low High Low | CAR | ICE | 16,310.62 | 14,247.23 | 1,545.39 | 1,535.25 | | CAR | PHEV | 31,050.41 | 16,685.49 | 2,830.61 | 1,450.71 | | CAR | EV | 44,898.92 | 22,944.05 | 2,091.54 | 1,144.52 | | CAR | FCV | 305,837.77 | 17,505.49 | 20,546.43 | 1,477.34 | | BUS | ICE | 235,689.65 | 168,376.88 | 24,970.65 | 24,765.81 | | BUS | HEV | 271,993.46 | 179,842.84 | 25,064.28 | 24,765.81 | | BUS | EV | 441,647.25 | 205,265.57 | 37,932.74 | 19,897.18 | | BUS | FCV | 1,052,865.48 | 187,265.86 | 93,722.26 | 20,154.28 | | RAIL | DIES | 4,745,030.85 | 4,466,216.35 | 49,128.38 | 49,128.38 | | RAIL | ELEC | 4,494,351.02 | 4,466,215.75 | 35,152.19 | 35,152.19 | | AIR | AIR | 57,337,603.75 | 57,337,603.75 | 1,504,958.04 | 792,385.50 | Current Calculator assumptions Life Time (years) Years | CAR | ICE | 12 | | CAR | PHEV | 12 | | CAR | EV | 12 | | CAR | FCV | 12 | | BUS | ICE | 15 | | BUS | HEV | 15 | | BUS | EV | 15 | | BUS | FCV | 15 | | RAIL | DIES | 40 | | RAIL | ELEC | 40 | | AIR | AIR | 30 | Methodology explanation Source & methodology Source & methodology For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010). In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL. MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost. h1 Issues and cross checks It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. This is something to confirm with MARKAL. Need to consider issues around scrappage rates costs and residual values. * May be worth plundering a McKinsey study[http://www.iphe.net/docs/Resources/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf] and perhaps getting in touch with the authors for some data points. Category: 2050 pathway costs User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |