XII.a Domestic passenger transport costs

Title: Domestic Passenger Transport Costs

Content: Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Neil Fleming

Working-level analyst - Catherine Smith, Nazmiye Ozkan.

Senior analyst - TBC

Technologies costed in this sector CAR ICE (Petrol/Diesel) CAR PHEV CAR EV CAR FCV (Hydrogen) BUS ICE (Diesel) BUS HEV BUS BUS FCV (Hydrogen/Methanol RAIL DIESEL RAIL ELECTRIC AIR DOMESTIC AIR (Kerosene) 

Cars ICE 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)10000-16311/car Operating cost £(2010)200-1545/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High is Markal and low is ESME Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level.

Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.70 2050 0.32 

Cars PHEV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-32800/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2831/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 High cost Markal and low cost ESME. EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Costs in model are applied using a triangular profile with 2010 (high) being a common start point for high and low, with low falling linearly to the 2050 level. Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.14 2050 0.04 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.12 2050 0.09

Cars EV 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)14125-44899/car Operating cost £(2010)200-2092/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs is MARKAL and low cost is ESME EV and PHEV capital costs for car include an uplift for infrastructure required using DfT assumptions of £1750 and £625 for high and low capictal, respectively. Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)23000-150000/car 23000–150000£(2010)/car Operating cost £(2010)200-20546/car 200–20546£(2010)/car Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes High cost is DfT advised number and low cost is from ESME Technology efficiences -- Hydrogen TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.24 2050 0.14

Bus ICE Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)120,000-235690/unit Operating cost £(2010)1000-24971/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High cost is MARKAL and low cost is ESME Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 3.92 2050 2.71

Bus Hybrid EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)130000-271993/unit Operating cost £(2010)4400-25064/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME Technology efficiencies -- Liquid Hydrocarbons TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 2.75 2050 1.90 Technology efficiencies -- Electricity TWh / bn vehicle-km 2010 0.93 2050 0.65

Bus Hydrogen FCV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010)260000-1052865£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010)2410-93722/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 Notes High costs from MARKAL/Low costs from ESME

Bus EV Source 2050 working assumption Capital cost £(2010) 205266–441647£(2010)/unit Operating cost £(2010) unit 19897–37933£(2010)/unit Year for which cost is valid 2010-2050 2010–2050 Notes MARKAL figures used for high and low

Calculator assumptions

Life Time (years) CARS 12 BUS 15 RAIL 40 AIR 30

Methodology Explanation For all technologies of CAR, BUS, RAIL and AIR MARKAL input assumptions have been used. These are the latest available MARKAL assumptions with updates from DfT applied (November 2010).

In order to derive a range for the cost figures, 2000 figures are used for the high and 2050 for the low where these differ in MARKAL.

MARKAL costs in billion veh kms per annum are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL estimates of average annual kms per technology. Costs then spread over assumed life-time per technology using MARKAL estimates of vehicle life. Each trajectory in the 2050 Calculator indicates distances by technology. These are converted into vehicles required using MARKAL assumption of average annual km by technology and the resultant required vehicles is costed against the per unit cost.

Issues and cross checks It is understood that MARKAL costs exclude infrastructure costs (including highways, highway infrastructure, rail infrastructure, electric veh charging points etc) – though rail does have a forecast that does include electrification costs. This is something to confirm with MARKAL. The 2050 Wiki

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