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XI.a Industrial processes costs

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Showing just the changes made in the edit by Tom Counsell at 2011-04-27 17:25:01 UTC

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2011-04-27


Title: 2050 Industrial processes costs

Content: Figures based on Markal10, Industrial sector technology sheet

h1 To be done

* Work through the worry list (see below)
* Process emissions - Markal lacks data on the cost of improving specific processes in the heavy emitting sectors
* Exploration of the output growth assumption, should it remain zero cost?
* CCS transport costs to be added

h1 Method

Markal data did not show any price variations in processes across industry type, only by fuel type. Consequently, I have set up the assumptions to give cost ranges for processes by fuel type. The ranges are costed on a per unit of energy used basis - it does not seem sensible to stipulate the cost of a single factory 'process'.

CCS is calculated separately, working back from emissions saved (both through specific process emissions and other) through deployment of CCS technology to calculate an energy equivalent which can then be costed. 

Carbon savings from specific process emissions are not yet properly dealt with, and may in the first instance require an assumption around a carbon price unless better data on the specific measures possible can be found. 

h1 CAPEX

For CAPEX calculations, I have assumed continuous investment will be required. This is definitely up for challenge.

h1 Issues / Worries

* CCS costs seem too low
* Process emissions likely to be tricky and require contentious assumptions to be cracked
* Output growth is assumed to be zero cost. However, it is possible to imagine that through plant decommissioning or the realignment of business models that both increasing or cutting back growth dcould have cost implications. This problem could be side-stepped to some extent if we stick rigorously to the line in our report that this lever is a function of macroeeconomic realignment away from manunfacturing towards a heavily service-sector based economy.
* This method doesn't require extra capex or opex for energy efficiency measures, which feels wrong.

Category: 2050 pathway costs



User: Tom Counsell

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