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Title: 2050 Balancing imports costs Content: h1 Source data h2 DECC Energy & Emissions Projections[http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/Projections/69-annex-f--fossil-fuel-and-retail-price-assumptions.xlsx] These are going to be updated Sep/Oct 2011, although the exact timings are still being confirmed. | 2030 in 2009 prices | Units | Low | Central | High | High High | | Gas | p/therm | 35.43574047 | 76.08440001 | 98.71460285 | 121.3451194 | | Oil | $/bbl | 61.35508809 | 92.03268442 | 122.7108036 | 153.3874588 | | Coal | £/tonne | 31.95575544 | 51.12929236 | 63.91161545 | 83.0850478 | | Unit | kWh | | therm | 29.3 | | bbl | 1700 | | tonne of coal | | h2 Markal 2006 Markal3.24Doc has a range of fossil fuel price assumptions, depending on the grade of the fossil fuel and whether it was domestic or imported, and varying over time. The documentation didn't state the actual numbers, so these are eyeballed from the graphs: | Widest range 2000 to 2050 in £2000/GJ | Low | High | | Gas | 2.5 | 5.5 | | Oil | 4 | 9 | | Coal | | | h1 Modelling approach Assume that: # The same price applies at all times (why have the gentle increase?) # Imports have the same cost as domestic production # Exports have the same cost as imports & domestic production Then # Take the widest range in the DECC forecasts h1 Uranium addition Uranium price assumptions taken from Markal3.24Doc Chapter 3 page 15. Low costs = Global average lower range cost $30/kg, original source OECD/IAEA 2002 Assume global resources are 0.8Mt High costs = Global average undiscovered uranium cost of $240/kg (note upper cost range of known resources is $110/kg), assume global resource is over 6.8Mt h1 Internal Check The cost of uranium should be roughly cheaper than fossil fuels (in terms of energy content) by a factor of 100 on the lower bound. This is taken by comparing MARKAL fossil fuel prices to MARKAL imported uranium prices h1 Lead analyst contacts Fossil fuel prices - Alex Whitmarsh (for gas) Uranium - Anthony Moulds Category: 2050 pathway costs User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |