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Title: 2050 Nuclear power costs Content: h1 Lead and sign-off 2050 Costs team lead - Michael Clark Working-level analyst - Henry Shennan, Anthony Moulds (DECC) Senior analyst - Sam Thomas h1 Data sources MottMac10 Markal3.24Doc MottMac11 ESME Summary: D11/859001 Excel sheet: D11/729334 h1 Technologies costed in this sector * Nuclear power plant * Uranium enrichment * Uranium imports * Uranium disposal h1 Nuclear power plant Costs summary (£ per KW): | Overall | Low | High | | Capital | 1702 | 4418.8 | | Operating | 46 | 97 | h2 Current Calculator assumptions * Lifetime = No retirement before 2050 for new build from 2020, current legacy retires by 2035 * Efficiency = 36% thermal efficiency, 10% own use as a percentage of supplied electricity * Load factor = 60-80% * Input Fuel = Uranium h2 Investment Cost sources * High cost = Nuclear 3rd Generation PWR - FOAK, from MottMac10, Availability = 100%, Aux power = 5.5% Life = 60yrs * Low cost = Nuclear plant, - 30% from ref from ESME, Electrical efficiency = 38-41%, Availability = 85%, Life = 50yrs h2 Fixed Operating Cost sources * High cost = Nuclear 3rd Generation PWR - FOAK, from MottMac10, Availability = 100%, Aux power = 5.5% Life = 60yrs * Low cost = Nuclear 3rd Generation PWR - NOAK, from MottMac10, Aux power = 4%, Availability = 80%, Life = 60yrs h2 Built plant estimates The headline figure often talked about by the leading UK developers (EdF and Horizon) and the UK government is £10bn for a twin or triple unit plant with a capacity of about 3GW net. This is equivalent to about £3300/kW (€3800/kW and $4900/kW). UAE’s price for Kepco’s APR concluded in late 2009 (about £2400 (~$3,600).[MottMac11] Both of these real world estimates fall within the range above. h1 Uranium enrichment Markal High cost of processing was 19% uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication and low cost 4.5%. h1 Uranium Imports Uranium price assumptions taken from Markal3.24Doc Chapter 3 page 15. Low costs = Global average lower range cost $30/kg, original source OECD/IAEA 2002 Assume global resources are 0.8Mt High costs = Global average undiscovered uranium cost of $240/kg (note upper cost range of known resources is $110/kg), assume global resource is over 6.8Mt h1 Uranium disposal Markal - a constant price of £0.38m/PJ h1 Issues, concerns and questions * The cost of uranium disposal only occurs within the time period 2007-2050 and the cost of storage in those years beyond 2050 isn't accounted for. Category: 2050 pathway costs User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |