XVI.b Balancing imports costs

Title: 2050 Balancing imports costs

Content: h1 Source data

h2 DECC Energy & Emissions Projections[http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/Projections/69-annex-f--fossil-fuel-and-retail-price-assumptions.xlsx]

These are going to be updated Sep/Oct 2011, although the exact timings are still being confirmed. 

| 2030 in 2009 prices | Units   | Low         | Central     | High        | High High   |
| Gas                 | p/therm | 35.43574047 | 76.08440001 | 98.71460285 | 121.3451194 |
| Oil                 | $/bbl   | 61.35508809 | 92.03268442 | 122.7108036 | 153.3874588 |
| Coal                | £/tonne | 31.95575544 | 51.12929236 | 63.91161545 | 83.0850478  |

| Unit          | kWh  |
| therm         | 29.3 |
| bbl           | 1700 |
| tonne of coal |              |

h2 Markal 2006

Markal3.24Doc has a range of fossil fuel price assumptions, depending on the grade of the fossil fuel and whether it was domestic or imported, and varying over time. The documentation didn't state the actual numbers, so these are eyeballed from the graphs:

| Widest range 2000 to 2050 in £2000/GJ | Low | High |
| Gas                                   | 2.5 | 5.5  |
| Oil                                   | 4   | 9    |
| Coal                                  |                                      |    |

h1 Modelling approach

Assume that:

# The same price applies at all times (why have the gentle increase?)
# Imports have the same cost as domestic production
# Exports have the same cost as imports & domestic production

Then

# Take the widest range in the DECC forecasts

h1 Uranium addition

Uranium price assumptions taken from Markal3.24Doc Chapter 3 page 15.

Low costs = Global average lower range cost $30/kg, original source OECD/IAEA 2002 Assume global resources are 0.8Mt

High costs = Global average undiscovered uranium cost of $240/kg (note upper cost range of known resources is $110/kg), assume global resource is over 6.8Mt

h1 Internal Check

The cost of uranium should be roughly cheaper than fossil fuels (in terms of energy content) by a factor of 100 on the lower bound. This is taken by comparing MARKAL fossil fuel prices to MARKAL imported uranium prices

h1 Lead analyst contacts

Fossil fuel prices - Alex Whitmarsh (for gas) Uranium - Anthony Moulds

Category: 2050 pathway costs



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

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Title: XVI.b Balancing imports costs

Content: The balancing imports spreadsheet describes how much Oil, Gas and Coal are imported. 

The imports are always sufficient to meet demand for solid, liquid and gasous fuels after any bio- and domestic sources have been used. Those calculations are carried out in the 'year' worksheets (labeled 2007-2050).

Note that the model does not assume any limit to the quantity of each fuel that could be imported.

See also:

# XV.b Indigenous fossil-fuel production 

h1 Source data

Forecasts of fossil fuel prices:

# Oil Price cost data
# Coal Price cost data
# Gas Price cost data

Explanation of our working assumption:

# 2050 working assumption Oil Price 2050 working assumption 2030-50
# 2050 working assumption Coal Price 2050 working assumption 2030-50
# 2050 working assumption Gas Price 2050 working assumption 2030-50

h1 Assumptions

# Exports earn the same cost as imports
# Fossil fuel prices follow DECC projections to 2030, then remain constant at the 2030 projected value.

h1 Questions for Stakeholders

# Is it reasonable to assume the UK could become an exporter of coal?
# Is it reasonable to assume exports are the same price as imports?

h1 General Comments

Please use this space to make any general comments. Please add your name when commenting.

h1 Contacts

# 2050 Team: Tom Counsell

Category: Sector by sector cost assumptions



User: Ruth Curran

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: