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Title: Association for Conservation of Energy Pathways Content: Ambitious demand side activity, low imports and cost, less large power stations We have compiled a number of pathways (click here to see more) all having the same basic features. # They all achieve the legally required 80% CO2 reduction by 2050. # They all rely on less large scale generation than any of the Government’s pathways; in particular they envisage no new nuclear power stations. # Although they envisage a high level of demand side effort they do not involve the introduction of ‘the thermal police’ to require people to shiver in the cold weather in order to save energy. Thus the entries for the average temperature of household’s row are either 2, as in the one presented herein, (meaning households may increase their temperature by half a degree by 2050 - or 3 (meaning that households will decrease their temperature by half a degree by 2050 but by means of thermostat controls and sensors not by having to be cold). # They all ensure energy security (‘keep the lights on’). # They all require a low amount of imported energy and so are more likely to delivery energy security than any of the Government’s pathways. For instance the four Government Pathways envisage between 45% and 65% of imported energy by 2050 (in particular the Analogous to MARKAL pathway will require 58% of imported energy). Our pathways require between 27% and 31% imported energy by 2050. In a changing, uncertain and unpredictable world this low level reliance of imported energy means greater energy security. In other words: our alternatives to large power stations mean that the lights are LESS likely to go out! # They all rely on less onshore wind turbines than the other pathways highlighted on this site. # All our pathways will save UK PLC money. Using the Analogous to MARKAL pathway as a base, as it is both the Governments preferred and cheapest pathway, our pathways will save between £2¼ billion and nearly £¼ trillion over the next 35 years. We are aware that using land for bio energy is controversial, so we have kept the entries for this measure at level 2 (in the pathway presented here) or level 3. Where we have used level 3 we have compensated for this by using level 4 for livestock management, as this could free up land for bio fuel crops to avoid using land currently used to grow food. We are also aware that importing energy is controversial so the ‘electricity imports’ row is always marked at level 1. Some of our pathways do possibly envisage some bio energy imports, the maximum being level 2, which will involve importing a half of the UK’s ‘fair share’ as worked out by the International Energy Agency. However this should only be from sustainable sources and should be kept under review. As regards the imports of coal, oil and gas all our pathways envisage less TWh than the maximum envisaged by the Government in their pathways. h2 Conclusion We believe that the pathway presented herein and the others to which there is a link demonstrates that we can achieve our carbon reduction targets , deliver greater energy security and save UK PLC billions of £’s without the need to build numerous large power stations and without large number of on-shore wind turbines. h2 Our various pathways * The pathway presented on this website involves no importing of bio energy and gas and only 27% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £27 per person per year. Based on a population of 63 million people this amounts to an annual saving of over £1.7 billion and assuming a start date of 2015, a total saving of over £59½ billion by 2050. * Pathway No 1 on the link involves no importing of bio energy and gas and only 27% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £25 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of over £1.5 billion and a total saving of over £55 billion by 2050. * Pathway No 2 on the link involves no importing of bio energy; a small importing of gas but a lower importing of coal and oil than the two above and a 28% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 2 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £5per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of £315 million and a total saving of over £11 billion by 2050. * Pathway No 3 on the link involves some importing of bio energy, small importing of coal and very small importing of gas and a 31% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 2 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £19 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of nearly £1.2 billion and a total saving of nearly £41.9 billion by 2050. * Pathway No 4 on the link involves no importing of bio energy and gas and a 28% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 3 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £75 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of over £4.7 billion and a total saving of over £165 billion by 2050. To discuss these pathways please contact Ron Bailey ronbailey@btinternet.com User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: Association for Conservation of Energy Pathways Content: Ambitious demand side activity, low imports and cost, less large power stations We have compiled a number of pathways (click here to see more) all having the same basic features. # They all achieve the legally required 80% CO2 reduction by 2050. # They all rely on less large scale generation than any of the Government’s pathways; in particular they envisage no new nuclear power stations. # Although they envisage a high level of demand side effort they do not involve the introduction of ‘the thermal police’ to require people to shiver in the cold weather in order to save energy. Thus the entries for the average temperature of household’s row are either 2, as in the one presented herein, (meaning households may increase their temperature by half a degree by 2050 - or 3 (meaning that households will decrease their temperature by half a degree by 2050 but by means of thermostat controls and sensors not by having to be cold). # They all ensure energy security (‘keep the lights on’). # They all require a low amount of imported energy and so are more likely to delivery energy security than any of the Government’s pathways. For instance the four Government Pathways envisage between 45% and 65% of imported energy by 2050 (in particular the Analogous to MARKAL pathway will require 58% of imported energy). Our pathways require between 27% and 31% imported energy by 2050. In a changing, uncertain and unpredictable world this low level reliance of imported energy means greater energy security. In other words: our alternatives to large power stations mean that the lights are LESS likely to go out! # They all rely on less onshore wind turbines than the other pathways highlighted on this site. # All our pathways will save UK PLC money. Using the Analogous to MARKAL pathway as a base, as it is both the Governments preferred and cheapest pathway, our pathways will save between £2¼ billion and nearly £¼ trillion over the next 35 years. We are aware that using land for bio energy is controversial, so we have kept the entries for this measure at level 2 (in the pathway presented here) or level 3. Where we have used level 3 we have compensated for this by using level 4 for livestock management, as this could free up land for bio fuel crops to avoid using land currently used to grow food. We are also aware that importing energy is controversial so the ‘electricity imports’ row is always marked at level 1. Some of our pathways do possibly envisage some bio energy imports, the maximum being level 2, which will involve importing a half of the UK’s ‘fair share’ as worked out by the International Energy Agency. However this should only be from sustainable sources and should be kept under review. As regards the imports of coal, oil and gas all our pathways envisage less TWh than the maximum envisaged by the Government in their pathways. h2 Conclusion We believe that the pathway presented herein and the others to which there is a link demonstrates that we can achieve our carbon reduction targets , deliver greater energy security and save UK PLC billions of £’s without the need to build numerous large power stations and without large number of on-shore wind turbines. h2 Our various pathways * Our main pathway (http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/11f2r1jop1f211111344111114113331243314212314331421141/primary_energy_chart) presented on this website involves no importing of bio energy and gas and only 27% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £27 per person per year. Based on a population of 63 million people this amounts to an annual saving of over £1.7 billion and assuming a start date of 2015, a total saving of over £59½ billion by 2050. * Our alternative pathway No 1 (http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/11f2r1jop1f222111344111114113331243314212314331421141/primary_energy_chart) involves no importing of bio energy and gas and only 27% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £25 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of over £1.5 billion and a total saving of over £55 billion by 2050. * Our alternative pathway No 2 (http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/11e2s1h221cggg111244121114214341243314112314331411141/primary_energy_chart) involves no importing of bio energy; a small importing of gas but a lower importing of coal and oil than the two above and a 28% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 2 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £5per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of £315 million and a total saving of over £11 billion by 2050. * Our alternative pathway No 3 (http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/11f2o1f221f2fg111233122114114341243314212314331421141/primary_energy_chart) involves some importing of bio energy, small importing of coal and very small importing of gas and a 31% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 2 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £19 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of nearly £1.2 billion and a total saving of nearly £41.9 billion by 2050. * Our alternative pathway No 4 (http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/11f2r1jop1f222111344111114113331343314112314331421141/primary_energy_chart) involves no importing of bio energy and gas and a 28% dependence on imported primary energy by 2050. This pathway includes level 3 entries for average temperatures of homes and land for bio fuels. Compared to the Analogous to MARKAL base it will save UK plc £75 per person per year. Using the same calculations, this amounts to an annual saving of over £4.7 billion and a total saving of over £165 billion by 2050. To discuss these pathways please contact Ron Bailey ronbailey@btinternet.com User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |