The UK 2050 Calculator Web Flash Excel Wiki
Register or sign in
This is a wiki Anyone can contribute, therefore we don't vouch for its accuracy.

Bicycle Methodology

Return to the page.

Showing just the changes made in the edit by Ruth Curran at 2013-11-22 11:30:39 UTC

See all changes since this wiki was released

2013-11-22

2013-11-18

2013-11-15

Title: Bicycle Methodology

Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS*

In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach:

h1 Calibrating 2007

h2 Data

The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ]  reports:

# Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles.
# Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12
# Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012
# Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007

COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists:

# Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012
# Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012.
# Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724

The the british cycling economy report 2013[http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/zuvvi/media/bc_files/corporate/The_British_Cycling_Economy_18Aug.pdf] contains:

# 2010 3.6million bikes sold
# 2010 Bike sales of £1.6bn
# 2010 Accessory & service sales of £0.9m

h2 Calculations

42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. This means ownership as a % of total population is about 42% * 95% = 40%.

The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike.

If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold  = average life of a bicycle of 7 years.

The average cost of a bike today is £250 (=€305). The operating cost is £30/yr (=£0.8m accessory and service sales / 26 million bicycles)

h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes

For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged:

| Level  | % of total passenger-km, including aviation |
| 2007   | 0.5%                                        |
| 2050 1 | 0.7%                                        |
| 2050 2 | 0.9%                                        |
| 2050 3 | 1.0%                                        |
| 2050 4 | 4.7%                                        |

Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons.

Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands)

In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km:

| Level  | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day |
| 2007   | 0.5%                   | 40%              | 14,104       | 72                   | 179     | 0.491         |
| 2050-1 | 0.7%                   | 43%              | 15,363       | 108                  | 252     | 0.689         |
| 2050-2 | 0.9%                   | 46%              | 15,023       | 135                  | 296     | 0.812         |
| 2050-3 | 1.0%                   | 47%              | 15,023       | 150                  | 319     | 0.874         |
| 2050-4 | 4.7%                   | 100%             | 14,076       | 662                  | 662     | 1.811         |

Assume that the cost range in 2050 goes from a high equal to the Netherlands £600 (=€724) and the low equal to £160 (€190 the average selling price in Ireland) NEED TO CHECK SENSIBLE LOW VALUE. Point estimate is the same as today.

In any given scenario, assume that the ownership starts increasing from 2010.



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:
Title: Bicycle Methodology

Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS*

In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach:

h1 Calibrating 2007

h2 Data

The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ]  reports:

# Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles.
# Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12
# Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012
# Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007

COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists:

# Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012
# Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012.
# Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724

The the british cycling economy report 2013[http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/zuvvi/media/bc_files/corporate/The_British_Cycling_Economy_18Aug.pdf] contains:

# 2010 3.6million bikes sold
# 2010 Bike sales of £1.6bn
# 2010 Accessory & service sales of £0.9m

h2 Calculations

42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. This means ownership as a % of total population is about 42% * 95% = 40%.

The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike.

If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold  = average life of a bicycle of 7 years.

The average cost of a bike today is £250 (=€305). The operating cost is £30/yr (=£0.8m accessory and service sales / 26 million bicycles)

h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes

For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged:

| Level  | % of total passenger-km, including aviation |
| 2007   | 0.5%                                        |
| 2050 1 | 0.7%                                        |
| 2050 2 | 0.9%                                        |
| 2050 3 | 1.0%                                        |
| 2050 4 | 4.7%                                        |

Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons.

Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands)

In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km:

| Level  | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day |
| 2007   | 0.5%                   | 40%              | 14,104       | 72                   | 179     | 0.491         |
| 2050-1 | 0.7%                   | 43%              | 15,363       | 108                  | 252     | 0.689         |
| 2050-2 | 0.9%                   | 46%              | 15,023       | 135                  | 296     | 0.812         |
| 2050-3 | 1.0%                   | 47%              | 15,023       | 150                  | 319     | 0.874         |
| 2050-4 | 4.7%                   | 100%             | 14,076       | 662                  | 662     | 1.811         |

Assume that the cost range in 2050 goes from a high equal to the Netherlands £600 (=€724). Point estimate and low estimates are the same as today. (Note - another option would be to make the low equal to £160 (€190 the average selling price in Ireland) however, we decided to keep the lower level of £100 to give a bigger difference between high and low).

In any given scenario, assume that the ownership starts increasing from 2010.



User: Ruth Curran

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: