Showing just the changes made in the edit by Tom Counsell at 2013-11-18 16:55:00 UTC
See all changes since this wiki was released
Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 # h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. This means ownership as a % of total population is about 42% * 95% = 40%. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. The average cost of a bike today is £250 (=€305). h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | | 2007 | 0.5% | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons. Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands) In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km: | Level | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day | | 2007 | 0.5% | 40% | 14,104 | 72 | 179 | 0.491 | | 2050-1 | 0.7% | 43% | 15,363 | 108 | 252 | 0.689 | | 2050-2 | 0.9% | 46% | 15,023 | 135 | 296 | 0.812 | | 2050-3 | 1.0% | 47% | 15,023 | 150 | 319 | 0.874 | | 2050-4 | 4.7% | 100% | 14,076 | 662 | 662 | 1.811 | Assume that the cost range in 2050 goes from a high equal to the Netherlands £600 (=€724) and the low equal to £160 (€190 the average selling price in Ireland) NEED TO CHECK SENSIBLE LOW VALUE. Point estimate is the same as today. In any given scenario, assume that the ownership starts increasing from 2010. User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 The the british cycling economy report 2013[http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/zuvvi/media/bc_files/corporate/The_British_Cycling_Economy_18Aug.pdf] contains: # 2010 3.6million bikes sold # 2010 Bike sales of £1.6bn # 2010 Accessory & service sales of £0.9m h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. This means ownership as a % of total population is about 42% * 95% = 40%. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. The average cost of a bike today is £250 (=€305). The operating cost is £30/yr (=£0.8m accessory and service sales / 26 million bicycles) h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | | 2007 | 0.5% | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons. Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands) In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km: | Level | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day | | 2007 | 0.5% | 40% | 14,104 | 72 | 179 | 0.491 | | 2050-1 | 0.7% | 43% | 15,363 | 108 | 252 | 0.689 | | 2050-2 | 0.9% | 46% | 15,023 | 135 | 296 | 0.812 | | 2050-3 | 1.0% | 47% | 15,023 | 150 | 319 | 0.874 | | 2050-4 | 4.7% | 100% | 14,076 | 662 | 662 | 1.811 | Assume that the cost range in 2050 goes from a high equal to the Netherlands £600 (=€724) and the low equal to £160 (€190 the average selling price in Ireland) NEED TO CHECK SENSIBLE LOW VALUE. Point estimate is the same as today. In any given scenario, assume that the ownership starts increasing from 2010. User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |