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# Bicycle Methodology

 ```Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | | 2007 | 0.5% | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons. Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands) In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km: | Level | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day | | 2007 | 0.5% | 42% | 14,104 | 72 | 171 | 0.467 | | 2050-1 | 0.7% | 45% | 15,363 | 108 | 241 | 0.659 | | 2050-2 | 0.9% | 47% | 15,023 | 135 | 285 | 0.781 | | 2050-3 | 1.0% | 49% | 15,023 | 150 | 308 | 0.843 | | 2050-4 | 4.7% | 100% | 14,076 | 662 | 662 | 1.811 | User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at:``` ```Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. This means ownership as a % of total population is about 42% * 95% = 40%. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | | 2007 | 0.5% | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons. Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands) In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases linearly with respect to increase in % of passenger km: | Level | % passenger km by bike | % bike ownership | Person-km/yr | Person-km by bike/yr | Bike-km | Bike-km / day | | 2007 | 0.5% | 40% | 14,104 | 72 | 179 | 0.491 | | 2050-1 | 0.7% | 43% | 15,363 | 108 | 252 | 0.689 | | 2050-2 | 0.9% | 46% | 15,023 | 135 | 296 | 0.812 | | 2050-3 | 1.0% | 47% | 15,023 | 150 | 319 | 0.874 | | 2050-4 | 4.7% | 100% | 14,076 | 662 | 662 | 1.811 | User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at:```