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Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: (i) 2050 mode shares Trajectory % of passenger-km | Code | Mode | Notes | 2007 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | | WALK | Walking | [2] | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | BIKE Pedal cycles 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 4.7% CAR Cars, Vans, and Motorcycles 83% 82% 80% 74% 62% BUS Buses 6.0% 7.2% 8.8% 13.2% 18.7% RAIL Railways 7.0% 5.5% 5.7% 7.9% 9.8% AIR Domestic air travel 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% h2 Level 1 Lets assume that the proportion of bicycles owned in 2050 is unchanged on today (i.e., 42%) Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands), and level 1 has ownership equal to today. The baseis Lets assume that User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |
Title: Bicycle Methodology Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS* In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach: h1 Calibrating 2007 h2 Data The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ] reports: # Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles. # Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12 # Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012 # Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007 COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists: # Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012 # Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012. # Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724 h2 Calculations 42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK. The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike. If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold = average life of a bicycle of 7 years. h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | | 2007 | 0.5% | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | Need to cross check whether this looks sensible against typical journey lengths and international comparisons. Level 1: Lets assume that the proportion of bicycles owned in 2050 is unchanged on today (i.e., 42%). Level 4: Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands) In between, lets assume that bicycle ownership increases between Level 1 and Level 4, linearly with respect to increase in passenger km: | Level | % of total passenger-km, including aviation | % ownership | km / bike | | 2007 | 0.5% | 42% | | | 2050 1 | 0.7% | 42% | | | 2050 2 | 0.9% | | | | 2050 3 | 1.0% | | | | 2050 4 | 4.7% | 100% | | Lets assume that User: Tom Counsell Picture updated at: Signed off by: Signed off at: |