Bicycle Methodology

Title: Bicycle Methodology

Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS*

In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach:

h1 Calibrating 2007

h2 Data

The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ]  reports:

# Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles.
# Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12
# Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012
# Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007

COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists:

# Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012
# Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012.
# Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724

h2 Calculations

42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK.

The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike.

If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold  = average life of a bicycle of 7 years.

h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at:

Title: Bicycle Methodology

Content: * THIS PAGE IS WORK IN PROGRESS*

In versions of the calculator before 3.5.0 the number of bicycles, and the cost of bicycles, looks implausible. This page documents the new approach:

h1 Calibrating 2007

h2 Data

The National Travel Survey 2012[https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-travel-survey-statistics ]  reports:

# Table NTS0605 - The average distance traveled by bicycle per person in 2007 was 40 miles.
# Table NTS0608 - 42% of people aged 5+ owned a bicycle in 2011/12
# Table NTS0302 - 0.78% of non-air travel is by bicycle in 2012
# Table NTS0101 - 7103 miles travelled per person per year by all modes in 2007

COLBI - the European Bicycle Industry body - 2012 report on the European Bicycle Market [http://www.colibi.com/docs/issuu/European%20Bicycle%20Market%20&%20Industry%20Profile%20-%20Edition%202013.pdf] lists:

# Page 49 - 3771000 bicycles sold in GB in 2007, decreasing to 3600000 in 2012
# Page 50 - €725m value of bicycles sold in GB in 2007, increasing to €1098m in 2012.
# Page 21 - 2012 average bicycle price in GB €305, with NL highest at €724

h2 Calculations

42% of people over 5 own a bicycle, and the over 5 population in the UK is 59 million, so in 2011/12 there were about 25 million bikes in the UK.

The average distance per bicycle must be, approximately, the average distance per person divided by bicycle ownership: 40 miles per person / 42% bikes per person = 100 miles / bike = 153 km / bike.

If we assume no growth, so that bicycle sales replace broken bicycles, then 25 million bikes owned / 3.7 million bikes sold  = average life of a bicycle of 7 years.

h1 What changes to 2050 as mode share changes

For the moment, we will leave the share of trips by Bicycle unchanged:

(i) 2050 mode shares				Trajectory			% of passenger-km

| Code | Mode    | Notes | 2007 | 1    | 2    | 3    | 4    |
| WALK | Walking | [2]   | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |

BIKE	Pedal cycles		0.5%	0.7%	0.9%	1.0%	4.7% CAR	Cars, Vans, and Motorcycles		83%	82%	80%	74%	62% BUS	Buses		6.0%	7.2%	8.8%	13.2%	18.7% RAIL	Railways		7.0%	5.5%	5.7%	7.9%	9.8% AIR	Domestic air travel		1.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1% 	Total		100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

h2 Level 1

Lets assume that the proportion of bicycles owned in 2050 is unchanged on today (i.e., 42%) 

Lets assume that level 4 has 1 bicycle per person (roughly the case in the Netherlands), and level 1 has ownership equal to today. The baseis 

Lets assume that 



User: Tom Counsell

Picture updated at: 

Signed off by: 

Signed off at: