All at level 1 represents “no effort” across sectors – specifically, no policies introduced after July 2010 (when the Calculator was first published) would be included in level 1.
However, this definition was not strictly applied across all sectors – for example, level 1 CCS still delivers 1.6GW of CCS capacity by 2050 as it assumes the four demonstrations are successful; level 1 on domestic energy efficiency assumes 3.3m cavity walls installed by 2015, no more thereafter, to reflect energy efficiency policy of the time.
The “All Level 1’s” reflects a level of effort across all sectors whereby action is taken with no regard for greenhouse gas emissions or energy efficiency. The key features are as follows:
- Carbon emissions initially fall slightly but return towards their 1990 levels by 2050.
- Energy demand rises in almost all sectors, driven by population growth and a 5% rise in per capita demand.
- Energy is supplied increasingly and predominantly by fossil fuels, primarily natural gas (66% by 2050), and oil and petroleum products (28%).
- The UK accordingly becomes highly reliant on imports of fossil fuels, which consitute 88% of its primary energy supply in 2050, compared with 23% in 2007.
Important things to be aware about All Level 1:
- It is not reflective of existing or planned policy.
- It does not achieve an 80% reduction in emissions on 1990 levels by 2050.
- It makes unrealistic assumptions about energy imports. The pathway would have a strong dependence on natural gas, comprising nearly 2/3rds of primary energy demand in 2050 with the majority imported (90% including oil).
- It is not least cost - for example, there is no use of behavioural change to reduce energy demand and emissions.