The UK 2050 Calculator Web Flash Excel Wiki
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Instructions for how to use the excel model

The canonical version of the 2050 Pathways Excel model is available from: http://www.decc.gov.uk/2050

If you are within DECC, you can access the development version of the excel model from D2011/0669823. There is a log of Changes to the 2050 pathway costs model.

Aim of the model

This model computes energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for the UK between now and 2050 given assumptions about the trajectory of each sector between now and then. You select what trajectory you think is appropriate for each sector; the model calculates the energy flows and the resulting emssions. The aim is to chose trajectories that meet our 2050 emissions target (of 20% of 1990 levels)

Using the calculator

How to test a pathway

  1. Go to the "Control" worksheet. (See the schematic to the right for an overview).
  2. On the left hand side, chose the required level or trajectory for each sector:
    • Levels 1 to 4 describe the level of effort needed to change this sector
    • Trajectories A to D descibe possible outcomes, but are not necessarily harder or easier
  3. Press F9 to relcalculate the model. (You can do this at any time.)
  4. See if you managed to hit the target. Look at the emissions chart for the total greenhouse gas emissions.(See the additional notes below for a description of how to read this chart. Briefly, the solid line must dip below the 20% line in 2050.)

Examples of different pathways

TBD: Insert picture of control sheet

Some examples of pathways (that is, combinations of trajectories) that do meet the target can be found by clicking the "disclosure box" in the top margin where shown in figure 1. Descriptions of each trajectory can be found by clicking the other disclosure box in the top margin.

Notes

Units

Many different units are commonly used for energy, power, and area.

To change the default units, make a selection in the Preferences worksheet.

Emissions chart

The emissions chart shows emissions as a percentage of base year levels.

The base year is 1990. The 2050 target is currently to reach 20% of base year levels. The solid line shows total net emissions. The coloured areas show direct emissions from each category. There are two "negative emissions" categories:

  1. Carbon capture This refers to the CO2 sequestered by CCS plant or geosequestration technology.
  2. Bioenergy credit Refers to the CO2 sequestered, by plants, during the production of bioenergy.

Emssions

The modelled figures are computed from the energy consumption, and are unadjusted. The "% of actual" figure shows the 2007 modelled emissions as a percentage of 2007 actual emissions. To produce the "% of base year" figures here and in the chart, the modelled emissions have been adjusted by the "% of actual" figure so that the 2007 modelled emissions match the 2007 actual emissions.

Exports and imports

The estimated exports or imports are based on particular assumptions of UK domestic production.

Bioenergy contextual data

The Calculator makes no assumptions about the sector in which bioenergy is used. Instead, bioenergy is added to the available energy in each of the three physical forms (solid, liquid, or gas). For reference, these tables show how much of each physical form of energy comes from bioenergy sources. In addition, they show how much solid, liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons are used in each of a number of sectors.

These tables do not show how much bioenergy is used in each sector

Structure of the calculator

SECTION WORKSHEET DESCRIPTION
Calculator control and output Contents This worksheet
Instructions Instructions for use
Control Main user interfance
Glossary Brief description of a few terms
Preferences Settings for the units used to display energy, power, and area
CHANGELOG Change history since version 1.0.0
All vectors Summary of all outputs from worksheets for the webtool
Intermediate working Intermediate output Figures used to produce the charts in "Control," summarised from the annual sheets
Reference data Conversions Common units
Global assumptions Assumptions used across sectors (GDP, population, households; UK incident solar energy)
Constants Properties of selected fuels (calorific values, emissions factors, density) and global warming potentials of greenhouse gases
Combustion Emissions Factors Summary of emissions factor used for each energy vector
List of principle entities used in the model {Workstreams} Master list of all workstreams (I, II, III, …)
{Modules} Master list of all workstream modules (I.a, I.b, II.a, …)
{Energy vectors} Master list of all energy vectors (aka, fuel types)
{Emissions} Master list of all Greenhouse Gases and IPCC sectors
Module worksheets I.a – XVII.a One worksheet for each Module. Computes energy flows and emissions for that Module
Annual energy and emissions balance sheets 2007 (Actual, frozen) For reference, actual 2007 energy consumption, derived from DUKES and other sources, using the energy vectors and modules defined herein
2007 (Consistent) For reference, actual 2007 energy consumption, derived from DUKES and other sources, using the energy vectors and modules defined herein
2007 – 2050 One worksheet for each year modelled. Brings together all energy flows and emissions for that year
Other DUKES … Downloads of selected statistical tables from the DECC website