This page sets out the technology assumption changes to the 2050 Calculator, since the release of v1.2 in March 2011.
Previously, users would define a trajectory for new heating systems, which would mean gas boilers could not be phased out by 2050 even in the most heroic technology switches. Therefore, we have amended the Calculator so that the choices define the heating system mix in 2050, with a linear trajectory to this point.
To develop this trajectory, for 2007-2015 we have assumed every new heating system is Gas, from 2015-2050 there is a linear trajectory based on the trajectory choice for the 2050 target. The number of new installations are calculated simply by any positive difference (i.e. we're not counting scrapped boilers) over the previous 5 year time block.
This change gives greater potential carbon savings but also a greater balancing challenge where heating is electrified.
Indigenous Fossil Fuel Production
In a carbon constrained world, the UK may reduce fossil fuel production for export, though in many scenarios fossil fuels continue to play a significant role in the UK's primary energy mix. Therefore, we have developed 3 trajectories to reflect central, low production and very low production. This option is intended to be a feature of the excel calculator only.