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Do you account for the wind not blowing

We have a stress test that tells you based on your electricity generation mix and back up capacity choices (interconnectors, pumped storage and EV demand shifting) how much extra back up capacity is required given a 5 day cold snap with little wind and peak heating demand. This scenario was based on past wind data and peak demand for heating and it represents the harshest test to the grid we found in past data.

For most pathways with high intermittent renewables, back up capacity options are exhausted over the 5 day period and back up generation (we have assumed CCGTs) is meeting the gap in supply and demand. Therefore, we believe this test is suitably harsh that enough back-up capacity is built to cover intermittency and peaking problems (please tell us if you have evidence of a harsher test).

However, there are two areas we would like to improve going forward:

  • Better data on the frequency of intermittency
  • Forecasts of weather going forward rather than relying on past data

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