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Why are there drastic jumps in zero carbon vehicle units in 2020 and 2025, continuing upwards

In the Pathway that you refer to (National Grid example Pathway with a 4, 1, 1, 3 choice in rows 30-33), the rise in low carbon technology in 2020-25 is a result of the choices in the pathway (adoption of lower carbon technologies which breaks through more by 2020) and the time taken for older technologies to reach the end of their economic lifespan from 2007 and be scrapped and replaced with the low carbon technologies.

  1. Level 4 on the domestic transport “behaviour” lever results in a shift from cars (83% in 2007 to 62% in 2050) to lower carbon technologies:
    • bikes (0.5% in 2007 to 4.7% in 2050)
    • buses (6% in 2007 to 18.7% in 2050); and
    • railways (7% in 2007 to 9.8% in 2050).
  1. Level 1 on the domestic transport “electrification” lever results in a move from internal combustion engine technology towards hybrid electric / electric vehicles for those vehicles that are being used more as a result of the “behaviour” lever.
    • cars are 99% fossil fuel in 2020;
    • bikes have zero emissions;
    • buses are 11% hybrid electric by 2020
    • trains are 64% electric across the whole 2007-2050 period.
  1. Level 3 on domestic freight lever results in a shift to road to rail freight, some of which adopts electric technology whereas road freight does not. There is an increase in goods movement by 14% from 2007 to 2050.