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Changes to the 2050 pathway costs model

This page is obsolete. See the history of published versions of the 2050 calculator for more recent changes.

w/c 22nd August

  • Tweaked the layout and look and feel of the total cost tables - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed bug in the commercial district heating pipe cost calculation - Tom Counsell

w/c 15th August

  • Tweaked the electricity export price assumption - Tom Counsell
  • First air quality experiments - Michael Clark
  • Some refactoring of the sheets to reduce our sheet count - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed incremental costs sheet, so it includes new sectors - Michael Clark
  • Number of bikes was ammended (previously there were over 600 million by 2050!), assumed number of kms travelled per bike was 150km instead of 75 in 2007 giving roughly 30m bikes in the UK (a quick internet search says there were 20m in 1995[1]). The number of kms travelled per bike is assumed to increase at a rate of half the growth in mode share use. This is a stop gap until we get better data on number of bikes - Michael Clark
  • Bug in the cost charts - change name of XII.Bike - Michael Clark
  • Changed Coal CCS upper bound after changing PB input data - Michael Clark
  • Added a cost of carbon calculator in 'All Costs' - Michael Clark
  • Noticed cumulative emissions bug for the period 2007-2010, will make very little difference but the multiplier should be 6 not 3 - Michael Clark

w/c 8th August

  • Started to clean up the model - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed the control sheet separation of Marine into Wave, Tidal Stream and Tidal Barrage, will need to update 10 word descriptions - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed the units bug on district heating connection costs - Tom Counsell
  • Tweaked some of the grid costs - Tom Counsell
  • Tweaked some of the bio- conversion costs - Tom Counsell
  • Bug with Bike cost referencing, fixed so all costs sheet now has bike costs. Still need to fix the bikemania bug - Michael Clark
  • Reduced micro CHP costs following consulation with Alex from CCC and new data - Michael Clark
  • Bug in commercial lighting low costs fixed (wasn't dividing by number of years) - Michael Clark
  • District heating network costs bug fixed, wasn't dividing by number of years and was multiplying cumulative rather than additional installations - Michael Clark
  • Added district heating costs in IX.c Commercial heating - Michael Clark
  • Updated cost charts section to reference tables and additional disaggregation of sectors. NOTE: I've used an average cost conversion factor for the average of costs over 9 time periods, I'm not sure why but this seems to yield different results - Michael Clark

w/c 1 August

  • Update the minimum imported bioenergy costs in the light of new data - Tom Counsell
  • Given bioenergy conversion facilities a 30 year life - Tom Counsell
  • Updated imported biomass and imported biofuel cost ranges - Tom Counsell
  • Updated agricultural abatement cost ranges - Tom Counsell
  • Solar PV bug ammended, previously it was over calculating build rates - Michael Clark
  • Agriculture and land use costs split by costs associated with emissions abatement and bioenergy production. Similarly, waste sector is split by bioenergy capture/production and waste management costs - Michael Clark
  • Add the latest set of extra test pathways - Tom Counsell
  • Fix so that you never get negative balancing capacity - Tom Counsell

w/c 25 July

w/c 18 July

  • Geosequestration costs - Investment costs were previously double counted as they weren't calculating the incremental - Michael Clark
  • Incremental Costs - Added 4 columns, so that incremental costs will work in any monetary unit. Also, noticed 2050 costs in column V was looking up NPV toggle (thereby inflating costs), so switched it back to looking up 2050 toggle - Michael Clark
  • Heating costs - some costs updated - Michael Clark

w/c 11 July

  • Fixed the total GW electricity generation number - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed the electricity consumption line - Tom Counsell
  • Revised down the solid fuel and gas CHP domestic costs - Michael Clark
  • First estimate of the cost per MWh of power and biomass supply - Michael Clark
  • Changed new build trajectory in IX.a to include replacement of existing stock, assuming an annual demolition rate of 0.1% (from July 2010 report). For simplicity I used 0.5% of the previous 5 year time period - Michael Clark
  • Changed Gas build rates to reflect true GW installed (previously the costs didn't take into account the size of the plant, so appeared twice as expensive) - Michael Clark

w/c 4 July

W/C 27th June

  • Transport Opex amended to be triangular in line with Capex - Neil Fleming
  • Table added to cost sheet to show annual cost per person in 2050 rel to Level 1 - Neil Fleming
  • Reinstated transport triangulation in line with the correction (see below) - Neil Fleming
  • Updated hard-wired Level 1 runs in 'Costs' sheet - Neil Fleming
  • Split out the different parts of transport costs - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed bug in transport triangulation - Tom Counsell
  • Finished splitting residential insulation and residential heating costs - Tom Counsell
  • Removed #REF bugs from XII.c - Tom Counsell
  • Split fossil fuel costs into coal, oil, gas rather than domestic and imported - Tom Counsell
  • Wired up the indigenous fossil fuel production scenarios - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed information on balancing capacity bug on the control sheet - Tom Counsell
  • Updated pathway Charlie per Andrew Greenway's email - Tom Counsell
  • Changed the cost of oil - Tom Counsell
  • Pruned the terminal value workings as no longer used - Tom Counsell
  • Changed some heat cost assumption mechanics - Rees Howell
  • Changed industry to only cost green-ness and not size - Tom Counsell

W/C 26th May

  • Following discussion with DfT amended surplus value applied to all transport technologies where trajectory is reducing units required. On the basis that the stock most likely to be surplus will be older stock the assumption being used is that it will be around 1 year's value, the total unit cost divided by lifetime. To be further discussed with DfT. - Neil Fleming

W/C 23rd May

  • Refixed the Sankey diagram. Fixed the marine capacity on the intermediate output - by splitting out wave, tidal range and tidal stream capacities separately - Tom Counsell

W/C 16th May

  • Changed economic lifetime of sectors from 30 years to approximation for each sector
  • Fixed an error in electricity imports (VIIa) where interconnector costs were wrong (an extra multiplying by a million had been done for low costs)

W/C 2nd May

  • Fixed a bug in the GW capacity table on intermediate output & hydro pages. Added standby gas to the capacity table. - Tom Counsell.

W/C 25th April

  • Fixed a units and a sizing bug in domestic heating - Tom Counsell

W/C 18th April

  • Amended the domestic passenger cash flow calculation to divide figures by 5 to give total figures in each year levels. Added the approach to freight and international aviation sheets. Neil Fleming
  • Added wiring to cost sheet for Terminal Value assumption and example in nuclear sheet - Tom Counsell
  • Added cash flow costings approach to domestic passenger sheet. Will add to other transport sheets next. The user has an option to see costs in annualised or cash flow terms. A question arises on the treatment of negative costs in situations where there is a negative unit requirement period on period. I have left this as a negative cost for in year capital but removed the scrappage replacement cost. The argument for this approach is that in reality the dynamics of the market would allow the falling older technologies to be phased out over a timeframe allowing manageable numbers of obsolete stock and so savings in a modelled approach should be present. Welcome views. Neil Fleming
  • I've added a new indigenous production scenario to update for revised published DECC projections from Mike Earp (DECC). There are also 2 other scenarios added but there is not a user choice - this is something we need to think about in terms of simplification and maximum number of levers. - Michael Clark

W/C 11th April

  • Power sector: Lit review of costs in power, using ESME, Markal, MottMac10 and MottMac11 to give larger ranges. Retirement assumptions added for power plants and several errors fixed (Biomass plants were 1000x more expensive than they ought to have been and errors in the formula for build rates gave negative costs for a number of level 1 scenarios). The level 1 'baseline' will now be a relatively greater cost due to these changes. - Michael Clark
  • A simpler discount factor formula. Same answer, but doesn't crash the web tool - Tom Counsell
  • Another #REF!, this time in a hidden row. Please don't hide rows! - Tom Counsell
  • Removed assorted #REF! and external links that had crept in - Tom Counsell
  • Bodged the commercial heating sector to use the new linear trend for heating and cooling technologies from 2015 to target in 2050 - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed a bug on residential heating about how the installation of the different technologies grows - Tom Counsell
  • Amended discount factor to calculate cumulative weighted discount from a user defined entry - adjustment made to account for 3% applying only to post 2040. Neil Fleming

W/C 4th April

  • Updated the all at level 1 counterfactual in the excel - Tom Counsell
  • Corrected the cost figures to use Price2000 in V.a; V.b; Price2008 in VI.b; a mixture of Price2000 and Price2010 in VI.a; Price2010 in VI.c; Mix in VII.a; Price2000 in VII.b; Price2000 in VIII.a; Price2009 in XV.b; Price 2000 in XVI.a; Price2009 in XVI.b; Price2009 in XVII.b - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed sankey diagram data - Tom Counsell
  • Removed the external references that crept in (again!) - Tom Counsell
  • Made the discount factor a user choice. Tom Counsell
  • Amendment to discount factor so that 3% applies post 2040, as per HMT Green Book. Neil Fleming
  • Added GDP deflators from 1990-2010, now whenever a cost is earlier than 2010 just multiply by PriceXXXX (year of costs) to get the price in 2010. Taken from: - Michael Clark

Friday April 1st

  • Added optional financing costs to the 'Costs' sheet - Tom Counsell
  • Minor fixes, including ability to compare costs with Level 1 pathway in the excel - Tom Counsell
  • Added a range to electricity imports - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed bug in biomatter conversion cost naming - Tom Counsell
  • Moved uranium fuel costs to nuclear tab - Tom Counsell
  • Completely reworked the balancing calculations - Tom Counsell
  • Give refineries a 30 year life - Tom Counsell
  • Tweaked industrial process and refineries use of units - Tom Counsell
  • Tweaked the use of cost formulas (MGBP/Unit.KW) in Nuclear, Solar hot water. Industrial processes and Refineries need a similar fix - Tom Counsell
  • Removed external references - Tom Counsell
  • Added gas distribution costs - Tom Counsell
  • Fixing the cost table names in small wind, electricity imports, industry, refineries - Tom Counsell
  • Base year rail freight data updated using Network Rail data. Corrections made to ensure MARKAL lifespan figures apply to all transport capital costs but not to operating/maintenance costs. To note - international air opex/maint look high as a proportion of capital cost. Will run these past DfT. Neil Fleming

Earlier changes (but post March publication)

  • Industry and petroleum refinery costs data included - Sophie Hartfield.
  • Hydrogen costs added - Tom Counsell
  • Geosequestration costs added - Tom Counsell
  • District heating costs added - Tom Counsell
  • Rail freight added. Units costs from MARKAL applied to estimate of unit requirements by trajectory. Network Rail base freight figures split between electric and diesel using power consumption in base year and projected forward on basis on future energy use in trajectory. International air added using MARKAL figures of seat kms applied to occupancy rates to produce units required by trajectory applied to MARKAL unit costs for air. Neil Fleming
  • Added agriculture and bio cost estimates. Fixed a bunch of linking and array formula bugs that seem to have crept in. Balancing sheets still broken. Tom Counsell
  • Electricity imports costs included and micro wind costs updated. Costs taken from MARKAL. Sophie Hartfield.
  • Revised MARKAL transport costs sent by Steph and comments by DfT (Claire Worsdall) updated into model for domestic and freight.
  • Latest MARKAL EV transport costs added into domestic transport sheet. Electric passenger train figures include track electrification costs.
  • I had a problem working on the model in MATRIX earlier and managed in error to create a copy version - D11/800559. Please don't use this version. I have asked if this copy can be deleted to avoid confusion. Thanks.
  • Transport sheets - domestic passenger and freight - amended to 2010 price base. Airline assumption amended to 25yr life as per DfT advice.
  • Refineries, Industrial processes and commercial heating and lighting costs added - Andrew Greenway
  • Solar Thermal PV and solid biomass power costs added - Michael Clark
  • Fixed bug in referencing caused by decimal point introduction - Tom Counsell
  • Freight costing completed for where we have these (ie HGV road only). Assumptions used are MARKAL, veh KM from DfT/MARKAL and length of life of vehicles from web research. DfT requested to provide rail frieght figures. Note the domestic frieght cost graphs look v low as a result of rail freight not being cost modelled - Neil Fleming
  • Added decimal points (i.e., the ability to select level 3.4 offshore wind) to all the supply side sectors apart from domestic bioenergy & waste. This involved edits to almost all supply sheets, so watch out if you are editng them. Fairly drastic changes, so please do watch out for bugs. - Tom Counsell
  • Uranium processing and disposal costs added as an operating cost (variable on uranium used) within the Nuclear power section - Michael Clark
  • Uranium import costs added in fossil fuel transfers - Michael Clark
  • Costs of micro wind added in. Costs were from Markal. - Sophie Hartfield
  • Reorganised freight sheet. There is no trajectory data for rail freight - ie no veh kms. DfT have been sent a request for this. The road freight data is present and can be progressed.- Neil Fleming
  • Assumptions entered into passenger transport sheets for length of life of modes. These are based on a trawl of DfT web sources, CfIT and airline industry bodies. The assumptions have been sent to DfT to give them an opportunity to comment.- Neil Fleming
  • The method deployed for passenger transport has been to estimate veh/unit costs using MARKAL/DfT average annual mode length figures applied to the costs per bn veh km/a to provide cost of a vehicle unit - capital and opex/maintenance (high and low). This is then applied to trajectory generated estimates of vehicle requirements (using the DfT figures for vehicle occupancy applied to passenger kms figures). - Neil Fleming
  • Fixed bug in emissions credit calculation on imported bioenergy - an array formula stopped being one. - Tom Counsell
  • Macroalgae costs - Tom Counsell
  • Home insulation measures - Tom Counsell
  • Electricity grid costs - Tom Counsell
  • Domestic passenger transport costs estimated and graphed. These include the base starting stock. Welcome team discussion on this. - Neil Fleming
  • Altered cost charts to always report undiscounted mean £/person/year - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed a bug in the marine and PV sheets where the cost unit wasn't set - Tom Counsell
  • Costs for domestic passenger, domestic freight, international air all entered into model now in unit terms. The passenger and freight look reasonable in unit/veh terms. DfT will be consulted on these for their view. CCC have cautioned on the use of the MARKAL international air as they feel they are not robust - sources questionable and based on speculative technology. No maritime costs as yet. Sources will be sought for these. - Neil Fleming
  • Added new sheet for transport assumptions containing unit conversions from annual kilometres - sourced from MARKAL (sourced to DfT and 'best available sources') - Neil Fleming
  • Added MARKAL costings for transport into model - Neil Fleming
  • Removed the use of '-' instead of '0' to indicate no fuel costs in the tables on the electricity generation sheets - Tom Counsell
  • Removed grouping on most sheets - they causing problems in tracking down linked sheets - and therefore finally removed the external links - Tom Counsell
  • Fixed the charts on the control sheet (the primary energy chart was including data on shipping, aviation etc!) - Tom Counsell
  • Added the cost of bioenergy imports - Tom Counsell
  • Added a decimal point to offshore wind. Can now choose trajectory 3.1456978 if you wish. - Tom Counsell
  • Adjusted NPV calculation to only multiply years 2015-2050 by 5 and then add an undiscounted 2010, since this is our starting price year - Michael Clark
  • Added line charts of costs over time - Tom Counsell
  • Tried to strip out some of the external references - Tom Counsell
  • Added an option to view costs as a % of GDP - Tom Counsell
  • Added fossil fuel costs and a bar chart showing overall costs - Tom Counsell

March 2011 publication

  • Contents: Added information on 'all vectors'
  • Control: Additional levers, extra solid biomass bio-energy data, re-arranged format
  • All vectors: Summary of GHG and energy vectors by worksheet for use in the web tool
  • Intermediate output: Installed Capacity (GW) in power generation information, emissions split by sector I-XVII, cumulative emissions estimated and supplemental bio-energy information
  • Conversions: Billion Cubic Metres (Gas) unit added
  • Combustion Emissions Factors: CO2e column added
  • Modules: Number of name changes for modules and sections added
  • All Worksheets: Information added for implied GW installed capacity and size of plants, land use implications also added where appropriate
  • I.a: Coal retirement rate adjusted, biomass/coal installed capacity option
  • I.b: Fuel mix lever added, fixed assumptions for load factor, base load etc adjusted based on latest evidence
  • III.a.2: Capacity factor increased to 2050 and Level 4 now more ambitious, split between floating and fixed turbines added
  • III.c: Split between West and East coast tidal stream sites added for level 4 with different load factors
  • V.a: Conversion efficiencies changed
  • V.b: Emissions now calculated from Bio-energy used in the UK i.e. where there's demand
  • VI.a: Levers for livestock growth and agricultural land use seperated, wood yields and Bio-energy crops adjusted
  • VII.c: Main changes: wind output and wave assumptions changed, heat pumps loss in efficiency and temperature shock
  • VII.c(1 day): New stress test
  • VIII.a: Hydrogen production method assumed to change over time
  • IX.a: Heat loss co-efficients updated and assumptions on insulation added
  • XI.a: Industry is now split into two levers: output and emissions intensity
  • XII.a: Fuel cell vehicles for buses added
  • XII.e: International Shipping levels added

Earlier versions

1.0.0 40338 Release candidate
1.0.1 40346 Added intermediate levels 2 and 3 to VII.a Electricity Imports
Corrected minor typos
Added cover sheet, rearranged order of some worksheets, deleted some worksheets
1.0.2 40350 Small changes to Wave and Tidal
Update the Pathways (Baseline now called B; others are X, Y, Z, and A
Updated the wording of the levels in the Control sheet
1.0.3 40351 In heating (IX.a and IX.c), swapped pathways 9 and 11
Changed the legend of the electricty chart from "conventional thermal plant" to "unabated thermal generation"
Moved heat-led production of electricity (domestic and commercial CHP) to "unabated thermal generation"
1.0.4 40353 Changes to aviation figures to match CCC efficiency assumptions
1.0.5 40354 Changed the ordering of trajectories B and C (2 and 3) in VI. a (Agriculture)
Changed "Bioenergy production" to "Bioenergy"
Changed "Bioenergy production from agriculture and waste" to "Biomass to fuel conversion"
Updated hydro trajectories very slightly
Added "key facts" table to "Output (figures)" and corresponding calculations -- for online version
Updated Electicity Imports (from solar power in deserts)
Updated Wave and Tidal Stream assumptions
Updated Pathways A-F
1.0.6 40374 Cosmetic changes to Control sheet
General cosmetic changes and tidying up
Added the beginnings of a glossary
Deleted XIII.a (Food consumption).
Revised the Instruction sheet
1.0.7 40379 Fixed Pathway B, which was a duplicate of Pathway A. Updates to Pathway E.