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2050 working assumption cost source

These are the 2050 working assumptions. They should always be ranges and always encompass the range of costs put forward by credible experts.

As a default, the top end of the range is the cost we know we can deliver, today. Therefore it assumes that any cost reduction in the future is 'used up' in increasing technical performance. The bottom end of the range is the most optimistic view, allowing for both innovative breakthroughs and learning by actually deploying the system. It would only be reasonably expected if other parts of the world also invested heavily in this particular technology.

We expect to update these assumptions over the call for evidence period and over time, as more evidence becomes available.

  Technologies Fuels
Valid in year Capital cost Operating cost excluding fuel Size Output Efficiency Life Fuel cost Fuel limit
Nuclear Power 2050 Pathways - 2010 Range 2010 £m(2010) 2478-4548/GWpeak £(2010) 120-13/KWpeak 3 GW 54% 36% 60 years
Nuclear Power 2050 Pathways - 2050 Range 2050 £m(2010) 1360-4548/GWpeak £(2010) 120-13/KWpeak 3 GW 72% 36% 60 years
Conventional Oil Electricity Generation 2010-2050 £(2010)500-920/kWpeak £(2010) 16-40/kWpeak 2 GW 4.70% 30%
Conventional Coal Electricity Generation 2010-2050 £(2010) 991-2277/kWpeak £(2010) 22.326-93/kWpeak 2 GW 57% 35% 25 years
Conventional Gas Electricity Generation 2010 £(2010)819-518/kWpeak £(2010)15-57/kWpeak 2 GW 70% 50% 20
Conventional Gas Electricity Generation 2050 £(2010)819-445/KW £(2010)15-57/kWpeak 2GW 70% 50% 20
Coal CCS 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)4154-821/KW £(2010)163-38/KWpeak 1.2GW 62-65% 32-44% 35 years
Coal CCS 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)4154-468/KW £(2010)163-38/KWpeak 1.2GW 72.6-74.3% 32-44% 35 years
Temporary High/Low 2050 £(2010)4323.2-821/KW £(2010)163-38/PJ 1.2GW 85% 32-44% 30 years
Temporary High/Low 2010 £(2010)4323.2-468/KW £(2010)163-38/KWpeak 1.2GW 85% 32-44% 30 years
Onshore Wind 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)1858-874/KW £(2010)75-7/KWpeak 2.5MW 30% 20 years
Onshore Wind 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)1858-822/KW £(2010)75-7/KWpeak 2.5MW 30% 20 years
Solid Biomass Electricity Generation 2010 Range 2010 £(2010) 5160-122/kw £(2010) 45-254/kw 50MW 85.5% 35% 25 years
Solid Biomass Electricity Generation 2050 Range 2050 £(2010) 5160-105/kw £(2010) 45-254/kw 50MW 85.5% 35% 25 years
Offshore Wind 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)4276-1050/kw £(2010)30-214/Kwpeak 5.8MW 45% 20 years
Offshore Wind 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)4276-2300/kw £(2010)30-214/Kwpeak 5.8MW 35% 20 years
Tidal Stream 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)2880-7083/kw £(2010)22-140/KWpeak 2MW 36% 25 years
Tidal Stream 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)797-5600/kw £(2010)22-99/KWpeak 2MW 36% 25 years
Wave 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)866-6440/KW £(2010)20-363/KWpeak 1.5MW 22.50% 45 years
Wave 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)2616-8600/KW £(2010)20-740/KWpeak 1.5MW 22.50% 45 years
Tidal Range 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)4157-2475/KW £(2010)13-42/KWpeak 240MW 22.8-19% 45 years
Tidal Range 2010 Range 2050 £(2010)4157-1631/KW £(2010)13-42/KWpeak 240MW 22.8-19% 45 years
Geothermal Electricity 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)2141-7848/kw £(2010)85-258/kwpeak 10MW 80% 25 years
Geothermal Electricity 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)7848-4016/kw £(2010)85-258/kwpeak 10MW 80% 25 years
Microwind 2010-2050 £(2010) 9000-1749/ kw £(2010)35-0/kw 5KW 24% 25 years
Solar PV 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)2385-5080/KW £(2010)1-71/KW 2.5KW 10% 25 years
Solar PV 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)383-5080/KW £(2010)1-71/KW 2.5KW 10% 25 years
Biomass liquid fuel imports 2050 £(2010)20-108/MWh 140 TWh
Bus EV Range - Bus - EV 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)205265.566120221-441647/unit £(2010)19897.1833237488-37933/unit 15 years
Battery Storage 2010-2050 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)192/KWh £(2010)0/kw
Commercial lighting and appliances Level 2 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)95059012-329485676/TWh £(2010)0/KW 9.6TWh
Commercial lighting and appliances Level 3 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)310688997-621377994/TWh £(2010)0/KW 23.4TWh
Commercial lighting and appliances Level 4 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)329485676-658971352/TWh £(2010)0/KW 37.5TWh
Interconnection Range 2010-2050 €m(2010)300-900/1GW £(2010)578955.5-192985.2/1GW 1GW, 260km
Exported Electricity 2010-2050 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)20-172/MWh
Uranium Enrichment & Disposal Enrichment, Waste & Disposal Cost 2010-2050 £m(2010)1.7765-0.629768/TWh
Hydroelectricity High/Low Range 2010-2050 £(2010)1036-9507/KWpeak £(2010)10-188/KWpeak 100MW 38% 60 years
Bus ICE Range - Bus - 2050 2050 £(2010)120,000-235690/unit £(2010)1000-24971/unit 15 years
Cars ICE Range - ICE - 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)13500-20000/car £(2010)200-1545/car 12yrs
Cars ICE Range - ICE - 2010 working assumption 2010 £(2010)15216-20000/car £(2010)1545-1545/car
Cars PHEV Range - PHEV - 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)14125-42350/car £(2010)200-2831/car 9-13 years
Bus Hydrogen FCV Range - Bus - Hydrogen FCV 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)260000-1052865.48133743/unit £(2010)2410-93722/unit 15 years
Passenger Rail Range - Rail - Electric 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)183367.8-333396/unit £(2010)401824.5-730590/unit 40 years
Passenger Rail Range - Rail - Diesel 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)68253.35-124097/unit £(2010)401824.5-730590/unit 40 years
Passenger Rail Default - Passenger Rail (Electric) - 2010 2010 £(2010) 333396/unit
Passenger Rail Default - Passenger Rail (Diesel) - 2010 £(2010) 124097/unit
UK National Aviation Range - UK National Aviation - 2050 2050 £(2010)24200000-57337603.7457258/unit £(2010)1504958.03543674-1504958.03543674/unit 30 years
Road Freight Range - Road - Freight Electric 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)166462.581597762-1727272.72727273/unit £(2010)2409.63855421687-30519.1482747902/unit 7 years
Road Freight Road - Freight Diesel ICE 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)45000-70790/unit £(2010)1000-15000/unit 7 years
Road Freight Range - Road - Freight Diesel ICE 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)45000-70790/unit £(2010)15000-15000/unit 7 years
Rail Freight Range - Rail - Freight Diesel 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)2233108-2545743/unit £(2010)31263.5048181536/unit 30 years
Rail Freight Rail - Freight Electric 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)2233107/unit £(2010)22044.8593410009/unit 30 years
Bus Hybrid EV Range - Bus - Hybrid EV 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)130000-271993/unit £(2010)4400-25064/unit 15 years
Oil Price 2010 $(2011)82-82/bbl
Oil Price 2050 working assumption 2030-50 $(2011)75-170/bbl
Coal Price 2010 $(2011) 93-93/tCoal
Coal Price 2050 working assumption 2030-50 $(2011)80-155/tcoal
Gas Price 2050 working assumption gas price 2010 2010 p(2009) 44- 44/therm
Gas Price Range - 2050 working assumption 2030-50 p(2011)45-100/therm
Gas Boiler Domestic 2010-2050 £(2009)125-150/KW £(2009)9/KW 20KW 3-10% 94% 15 years
Gas Boiler Commercial 2010-2050 £m(2010)55-38/TWh £m(2010)3-12/TWh 100% 90% 20 years
Gas Boiler 2050 Range - Residential 2010-2050 £(2010)3,087-2,573/20KW £(2010)180/20KW 20KW 91% 15 years
Electric heating Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £m(2010)195-65/TWh £m(2010)1.5-0.5/TWh 1 20 years
Electric heating 2050 Range - Residential 2010-2050 £(2010)4200-2800/20KW £(2010)196/20KW 20KW 100% 15 years
Oil fired Boiler Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)55,463,165-18,487,722/TWh £(2010)3,846,752-1,282,251 /TWh 20 years
Oil fired Boiler Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)324-187/KW £(2010)22-2/KW 97% 15 years
Solid Fuel Boiler (inc Biomass) Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)566-259/KW £(2010)26-11/KW 20KW 87% 15 years
Solid Fuel Boiler (inc Biomass) Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)384,495,307-31000000/TWh £(2010)1643644-4,696,126/TWh 20 years
Air Source Heat Pump Domestic 2010 £(2010)10808-8400/14KW £(2010)127-54/14KW 4KW 200-300% 15 years
Air Source Heat Pump Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £m(2010)205-141/TWh £m(2010)2-0.2 /Twh 20 years
Air Source Heat Pump Domestic 2050 £(2010)10808-4592/14KW £(2010)127-54/14KW 14KW 200-300% 15 years
Ground Source Heat Pump Domestic 2010 £(2009)14,157-8,448/11KW £(2009)5-9/KW 325-385% 23 years
Ground Source Heat Pump Domestic 2050 £(2010)1325-655/KW £(2009)5-9/KW 325-385% 23 years
Ground Source Heat Pump Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)183,148,910-128,368,601 /TWh £(2010)469,613-117,403 /TWh 20 years
Geothermal Heat Domestic & Non-Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)4,111-1,370/KW £(2010)56/KW 64% 70% 20 years
Micro CHP Domestic & Commercial Fuel Cell CHP assumption 2000-2050 £(2000)636-500/KW 34% 15 years
Micro CHP Sterling engine Micro CHP 2010-2050 £(2010)3500-3150/6KW 20KW 34% 85%
Air Conditioning Non-Domestic Air conditioning 2010-2050 £(2010)671,433,012-447,622,008/TWh £(2010)4,084,550-2,723,034/TWh 300%
Air Conditioning 2050 Range - Residential 2010-2050 £(2010)2964-1000/4KW £(2010)180-60/4KW 4KW 100% 250-600% 10 years
Biomass conversion gas to gas 2050 £(2010)92-113/MWh £(2010)13-19/MWh
Heat exchanger for District heating 2050 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)592-111
Solid wall insulation 2050 Range £(2010)7600-1695/House Lifetime of house
Cavity wall insulation 2050 Range £(2010)1620-356/household Lifetime of the house
Floor insulation 2050 Range £(2010)1295.2025696819-64.7601284840949/House Lifetime of house
Draughtproofing 2050 Range £(2010)2000-40/House Lifetime of the household
Loft Insulation 2050 Range £(2010)128-354/household Lifetime of the house
Superglazing 2050 Range £(2010)5180.81027872759-0/House
Gas (Natural or Biogas) CHP 2050 Range - Non-domestic 2010-2050 £m(2010)134-96/TWh £m(2010)10-5/TWh 100% 20 years
Gas (Natural or Biogas) CHP 2050 Range - Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)23500-16820/20KW £(2010)1700-900/20KW 10MW 100% 15 years
Solid Fuel CHP 2050 Range - Non-domestic 2010-2050 £m(2010)194-123/TWh £m(2010)3-11/TWh 20 years
Solid Fuel CHP 2050 Range - Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)34,000-21,620/20KW £(2010)1900-560/20KW 100% 15 years
Gas CCS Electricity Generation 2050 £(2010)1664-404/kw £(2010)133-32/KWpeak 1.2GW 79% 55%-62.7% 30 years
Gas CCS Electricity Generation 2010 Range 2010 £(2010)1570-600/kWpeak £(2010) 22-133/kWpeak 1.2 GW 73.7% 56-65% 30 years
Gas CCS Electricity Generation 2050 Range 2050 £(2010)1570-404/kWpeak £(2010) 22-133/kWpeak 1.2 GW 75% 65% 30 years
Biomass straw collection 2050 £m(2010)4-22/TWh
International Aviation 2050 working assumption
Macro Algae 2050 £(2010)15-343/tonne
District Heating Network 2050 Range 2010-2050 £(2010)26400000-64800000/TWh £(2010)0/TWh
District Heating Network 2050 Range - Domestic 2010-2050 £(2010)10800-4000/Household
Biomass manure collection 2050 £m(2010)0-22/TWh
Biomass 1st generation biocrops 2050 £m(2010)20-85/TWh
Biomass 2nd generation biocrops 2050 £m(2010) 7-28/Twh
Soil management Up to 2020 2010-2020 £(2010)0-7/tCO2e 0-1.9MtCO2e
Soil management Up to 2050 2020-2050 £(2010)0-52/tCO2e 1.9-3.4MtCO2e
Biomass forestry arisings collection 2050 £m(2010)10-25/TWh
Enteric fermentation abatement 2050 £(2010)0--161/tCO2e 0-3.8MtCO2e
Manure management 2050 £(2010)70-140/tCO2e 0-0.7MtCO2e
Biomass solid fuel imports 2050 £(2010)20-89/MWh 0-140 TWh
Biomass conversion 1st generation energy crops to liquid 2050 £(2010)5-119/MWh £(2010)1-23/MWh
Biomass conversion dry biomass, biocrops and waste to solid Range conversion dry biomass, biocrops and waste to solid 2010-2050 £(2010)1-23/MWh
Biomass conversion wet biomass and waste to gas 2050 £(2010)18-1154/MWh £(2010)1-74/MWh
Biomass conversion dry biomass and waste to liquid 2050 £(2010)23-263/MWh £(2010)4-63/MWh
Biomass conversion dry biomass and waste to gas 2050 £(2010)43-253/MWh £(2010)3-77/MWh
Waste collection and separation Recycling Household, C&I £(2010)15-37/tonne £(2010)31-86/tonne
Waste collection and separation Collection of household, commercial and industrial waste £(2010)6-16/tonne £(2010)20-39/tonne
Waste collection and separation Preparing for use for energy £(2010)19/tonne £(2010)19/tonne
Waste collection and separation Separating wet waste from Household, C&I £(2010)2-12/tonne £(2010)26-45/tonne
Biomass conversion 2nd generation energy crops to liquid 2050 £(2010)23-263/MWh £(2010)4-63/MWh
Biomass conversion wet biomass and waste to liquid 2050 £(2010)23-263/MWh £(2010)4-63/MWh
Waste landfill sites Landfill site £m(2010)23-47/250ktonne £m(2010)4-5/250ktonne
Waste landfill gas capture Capturing the landfill gas £m(2010)0-1/24ktonne
Waste landfill gas capture Recovering the landfill gas for energy £m(2010)0-1/13ktonne
Waste sewage gas capture Recovering sewage sludge for energy £m(2010)0-1/ktonne
Electricity Transmission £m(2010)82-481/GW £m(2010)2-12/GW
Electricity Distribution £m(2010)106-1688/GW £m(2010)3/GW
Carbon Storage 2050 £(2011)3-57/tCO2 £(2011)0.1-6/tCO2
Hydro pumped storage 2010 range 2010 £(2010)500-5079/kw £(2010)10-46/kw
Hydro pumped storage 2050 range 2050 £(2010)500-5079/kW £(2010)10-46/kw
Cooking 2050 working assumption - Gas 2010-50 £(2000)984-1476/700KWh
Cooking 2050 working assumption - Electric 2010-50 £(2000)922-1383/500KWh
Solar Thermal 2050 working assumption 2050 £(2010)876-3310/kW 0
Range - Cars ICE 2010 range 2010 1545 -1545

Other sets of cost data

Air Conditioning Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump with Storage (commercial) Air Source Heat Pump with Storage (domestic) Battery Storage Biogas Biomass 1st generation biocrops Biomass 2nd generation biocrops Biomass Boiler (commercial) Biomass conversion 1st generation energy crops to liquid Biomass conversion 2nd generation energy crops to gas Biomass conversion 2nd generation energy crops to liquid Biomass conversion dry biomass and waste to gas Biomass conversion dry biomass and waste to liquid Biomass conversion dry biomass, biocrops and waste to solid Biomass conversion gas to gas Biomass conversion wet biomass and waste to gas Biomass conversion wet biomass and waste to liquid Biomass forestry arisings collection Biomass liquid fuel imports Biomass manure collection Biomass solid fuel imports Biomass straw collection Biomatter to fuel conversion Bus EV Bus Hybrid EV Bus Hydrogen FCV Bus ICE Carbon Storage Cars EV Cars Fuel Cell Vehicle Cars ICE Cars PHEV Cavity wall insulation CHP Coal CCS Coal-fired Boiler Coal Price Commercial cooking demand reduction Commercial Heat Demand Commercial lighting and appliances Compressed Air storage Conventional Coal Electricity Generation Conventional Gas Electricity Generation Cooking District Heating (domestic) District Heating Network Draughtproofing Electric heating Electricity Distribution Electricity Grid Distribution Costs Electricity Grid Transmission Costs Electricity Transmission Energy Saving Trust’s Advanced Practice Energy Efficiency standard for New Build Enteric fermentation abatement Exported Electricity Floor insulation Fossil Fuel Transfer Costs Gas Boiler Gas CCS Electricity Generation Gas (Natural or Biogas) CHP Gas Price Geosequestration Geothermal Electricity Geothermal Heat Ground Source Heat Pump (commercial) Ground Source Heat Pump Ground Source Heat Pump with Storage (commercial) Ground Source Heat Pump with Storage (domestic) Heat exchanger for District heating Hydroelectricity Hydro pumped storage Imported Electricity Imported Uranium Interconnection International Aviation International Shipping Loft Insulation Macro Algae Manure management Micro CHP Microwind Nuclear Power Offshore Wind Oil Electricity Generation plants Oil-fired boiler Oil fired Boiler Oil Price Onshore Wind Passenger Rail Passiv Haus Pumped storage - Hydro Rail Freight Range - Cars ICE Road Freight Soil management Soil management level 1 Solar PV Solar Thermal (commercial) Solar Thermal Solid Biomass Electricity Generation 2050 Solid Biomass Electricity Generation Solid Fuel Boiler (inc Biomass) Solid Fuel CHP Solid wall insulation Conventional Oil Electricity Generation Temporary Superglazing Test category Tidal Range Tidal Stream UK National Aviation UK National Shipping Uranium Enrichment & Disposal Waste collection and separation Waste landfill gas capture Waste landfill sites Waste sewage gas capture Wave

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